A Study On Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Green Building Development

In China,the development of green buildings is an effective measure to solve the problems of high energy consumption and high emissions in the construction industry,and to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the construction industry.Since 2005,the number of green building projects and construction area in China have achieved rapid growth,and the quality of green buildings has also been continuously improved.However,the overall level of green building development in China is far lower than that in developed countries,and there is a serious regional imbalance in development,and the proportion of three-star and operational labeling projects is very small.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the influencing factors and the heterogeneous influences that cause the unbalanced and inadequate development of green buildings,and to formulate green building development plans and introduce green building policies and measures in various provinces,so as to accelerate the upgrading of green buildings and continuously meet the people’s growing needs for a better life.Firstly,this paper takes 27 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China as examples,analyzes 9190 projects that have passed the "Green Building Evaluation Standards" certification and obtained green building evaluation marks,and summarizes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of green building development in China.The results show that green buildings in China are still at a low-level development stage as well as focus on quantity growth,and the overall quality has not been improved.The development of green buildings has shown significant imbalance in different spatial levels.Secondly,the influencing factors of green building development are summarized through literature research.The research divides these factors into three types,including natural condition pressure factors,humanistic driving force factors and administrative driving force factors,and analyzed the influence mechanism of these three types of factors on the development of green buildings.We select representative factors such as fiscal revenue,per capita GDP,per capita transaction area of commercial housing,per capita years of education,supply-side incentive policies and demand-side incentive policies as explanatory variables,and construct a panel Tobit model to analyze its effect on the development of green buildings.Meanwhile,supply incentive policies are divided into material reward policies and reputation incentive policies,to discuss the effectiveness of supply incentive policies.The results show that the six variables all have a significant positive role in promoting the development of green buildings,and the supply-side incentive policies’ role in promoting green buildings is mainly derived from material reward policies.Finally,this article analyzes the heterogeneous influence of influencing factors on green buildings with different rating level,different label types and different building types,and paid particular attention to the heterogeneous influence of policies,so as to provide decision-making reference for the promotion of green building development and upgrade policies in the region.The results show that the level of economic development has a significant positive effect on the development of high-star green buildings,while the per capita transaction area of commercial housing and supply-side incentive policies have a significant effect on the development of low-star green buildings.Demand-side incentive policies have a significant impact on the development of one-star and two-star green buildings.The per capita transaction area of commercial housing and incentive policies only have a significant effect on the development of green buildings with design certification;however,material reward policies can promote the development of operation certification of green buildings to a certain extent.Moreover,demand-side incentive policies can effectively promote the development of public green buildings and residential green buildings,but their effect on industrial green buildings is not significant.Supply-side incentive policies can promote the development of all types of green buildings,but most of the effect is derived from material reward policies.