Research On The Influence Of "Car Subsidy" To "Pile Subsidy" For New Energy Vehicles

In order to save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,the world automobile industry is shifting its focus of development.The development of new energy vehicles featuring environmental protection and energy conservation has become the consensus of the industry.All countries in the world are increasing their investment in the field of new energy vehicles,and China also attaches great importance to the development of related industries.In the 1990s,China began to develop new energy vehicles and continuously launched a series of subsidy support policies.In the nearly 7 years from 2009 to 2015,relevant industries ushered in the unprecedented scale of support,and the whole industry also rapidly advanced with the continuous evolution of policies.But many problems also followed,excessive subsidies make the enterprise"subsidy dependence disease" and even appear large-scale "subsidy fraud" event.Therefore,after 2016,the subsidy regression policy was successively introduced,and new-energy vehicles entered the"post-subsidy era",and their market performance also showed great fluctuations.It can be seen from the newly released subsidy policy of the state in 2019 that the subsidy for new-energy passenger vehicles is more than 50%lower than that of the previous year,and it is proposed that "car subsidy" will be replaced by "pile subsidy".In the second half of 2019,the growth rate of new-energy vehicle production and sales plunged from 73%in previous years to 1%.Under the general trend,the living space of major new energy vehicle enterprises is squeezed,and the strong development momentum of new energy vehicle industry also tends to slow down.Based on the above research background,this paper studies the following questions by means of logarithmic regression model:1.The impacts of "car subsidy"and "pile subsidy" on the new energy automobile industry respectively;2.2.Indirect effect measurement of "car" and "pile";3.The actual effect of "car subsidy" to "pile subsidy" on the development of new energy automobile industry.Based on the micro data of China’s passenger vehicle sales,this paper firstly summarizes the development status of China’s new energy automobile industry,sorts out China’s new energy automobile subsidy policies,and analyzes the impact of subsidy policy changes on the market by combining data.Secondly,a logarithmic regression model is used to study the influence of "car subsidy" and "pile subsidy" on the sales share of new-energy vehicles respectively.Moreover,a classification analysis is also conducted for new-energy vehicles with different power types,driving range and vehicle USES.It is found that "car subsidy" is more effective than"pile subsidy" in promoting the overall sales share.Furthermore,the indirect network effect of "car" and "pile" was studied by using logarithmic regression model,and the positive feedback transmission degree between "car" and "pile" was explored.It was found that "car" had a greater promoting effect on "pile".Finally,the conclusion is sorted out,the effect of subsidy policy transformation is evaluated,and corresponding policy Suggestions are put forward.This paper finds that:1.The subsidy policy has an obvious incentive effect on China’s new energy vehicle market,and "car subsidy" is more incentive than "pile subsidy" to increase the sales share of new energy vehicles.From 2016 to 2019,China’s "car subsidy" has increased by 10%,and the sales share of "car" has increased by 2.42%on average."Pile supplement" increased by 10%,the number of"piles" increased by 3.57%on average,and the sales share of "cars" increased by 1.12%on average.In addition,"car subsidy" promoted the improvement of technical level.Specifically,"car subsidy" promoted the increase of sales share of pure electric vehicles with high mileage.2.Indirect network effect exists in China’s new energy vehicle market,that is,there is positive feedback transmission between "car" and"pile",and the degree of positive feedback between "car" and "pile" is stronger.From 2016 to 2019,the cumulative sales of "cars" in China increased by 10%,and the holding volume of "piles" increased by 3.78%on average.The number of "piles"installed increased by 10%,and the sales volume of "cars" increased by 1.69%on average.In addition,this kind of positive feedback may be affected by the industrial development time,technology level and economic level.3.Based on the above research results,it can be found that the positive feedback degree of "pile" to "car" in China is weak,and this degree may be further weakened,leading to less incentive for"pile" than for "car".All these indicate that the change from "car subsidy" to "pile subsidy" will not reduce the market fluctuation caused by subsidy regression,but will reduce the technical level of automobiles,even reduce the market competitiveness of domestic cars,and may eventually have a significant negative impact on the development of China’s new energy automobile market.According to the above research conclusions,the following policy inspirations are obtained in this paper:1.The regression of "car subsidy" should be moderately delayed.Whether in terms of sales share or technical level,"car subsidy" has a significant positive impact on the new energy vehicle market,and both enterprises and consumers are obviously dependent on "car subsidy".In addition,due to the weak positive feedback degree of "pile" to "car",the incentive of "pile supplement"to the sales share of NEW energy vehicles is weak,and "pile supplement" can not promote the promotion and application of new energy vehicles and technological progress.Therefore,China should set up a reasonable rate of subsidy regression to maintain the sound development momentum of the new energy automobile industry.2.Consideration should be given to improving the effectiveness of "pile repair".First of all,the number of charging pile construction in our country has been relatively saturated,the "pile" will promote the rapid growth in volume of charging pile,coupled with a range of car and battery capacity are also constantly improve,the"pile" to the "car" will weaken the positive feedback,and finally the effectiveness of the "pile" to the "car" will be further reduced.Therefore,China still needs to adjust the standard and content of "pile compensation" reasonably,such as setting subsidy ratio and ceiling more scientifically in terms of construction cost and power operation.3.Reasonable design of subsidy policy changes should be considered to further stimulate market vitality.From the actual situation,China’s "car subsidy" to"pile subsidy" policy can not achieve the ideal effect,the design of the subsidy policy system still needs to be further improved.To be specific,first of all,we can increase the subsidy forms for electricity,establish and improve the power subsidy policy,improve the subsidy standard,and ensure the implementation of the subsidy.Secondly,more emphasis can be placed on the subsidy input to enterprises’ R&D innovation to encourage them to carry out technological innovation and enhance their enthusiasm and initiative.In addition,China can further open its market,allowing more new products with different brands,different technology types and different market segments into the market,breaking down local protection barriers,creating an open market environment,and giving full play to the market potential of new-energy vehicles.