Research On The Impact Of The Establishment Of China-Asean Free Trade Area On China-Thailand Mechanical And Electrical Products Trade

The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,(CAFTA)has undoubtedly injected new vitality into the development of China and ASEAN countries.Since its establishment,the total volume of international trade between China and the ASEAN member states has increased year by year,and the trade volume of electromechanical products,which is the absolute main part,has also increased rapidly.After analyzing the general trade situation between China and ASEAN,this paper selects Thailand for the analysis of China-Thailand electromechanical industry trade.After analysis,it is found that China’s total electromechanical trade with Thailand has been increasing year by year.Especially after the establishment of the free trade zone,taxes and fees have been reduced,trade barriers have been eliminated,and the total transaction volume has shown a significant upward trend.However,before 2013,China had a trade deficit with Thailand,and after 2013 it became a surplus.The GL index of the mechanical and electrical industry trade between the two countries is above 0.8,showing significant intra-industry trade.After analyzing the trade index and competitiveness index of 9 major categories of mechanical and electrical products,it was found that among low-value-added products such as HS84 and HS85,China is at a greater competitive disadvantage,while among high-value-added products such as HS86,China Have a strong competitive advantage.This paper uses Stata 15.1 as a calculation tool,and at the same time uses a trade gravity model,and uses 1998-2019 as the sample interval to perform regression analysis on the trade of mechanical and electrical products between China and Thailand.The results found that after the establishment of the CAFTA,the GDP of China and Thailand,the distance between the capitals,the proportion of mechanical and electrical products in all exports,and the establishment of a free trade area are all significantly positive.At the 1% and 5% significance levels,only the real effective exchange rate of RMB has no significant impact on the trade of mechanical and electrical products between China and Thailand.Finally,this paper estimates the trade potential of China-Thailand electromechanical products based on the quantification and research results,and puts forward some feasible suggestions for consolidating the development of ChinaThailand electromechanical products trade.