Research And Application Of Scheme Effectiveness Risk Optimization Algorithm Based On Weibull Distribution

Along with the equipment design scheme selection task requirements,the required resources continue to increase,for equipment plan optimization decision theory framework of information and related service development study began,the result of the decision scheme will have an impact on the development of the program in the future,and the importance of scientific decision-making plan is becoming more and more outstanding.Portfolio analysis framework is the basic theoretical support for scheme optimization under complex conditions.The research on this framework has a direct impact on the direction of decision making.In the current rapidly changing information and complex environment conditions,it is of far-reaching significance to realize the robustness and adaptability of scheme development.Although there is a complete framework of portfolio analysis,there are some problems,such as coarse-grained evaluation of scheme risk,ideal static calculation of scheme efficiency and insufficient consideration of technical risk.This topic for the solution efficiency of the static calculation and consider the problem of insufficient risk in fine-grained,thesis proposes a scheme efficiency risk optimization algorithm based on Weibull distribution,through the introduction of Weibull distribution and technical maturity to describe the uncertainty of technology for efficiency,further complete the combination scheme of effectiveness evaluation,fully considering the influence risk brought by the technology is not mature.Experiments show that the algorithm can effectively reduce the negative impact of immature technology in the process of scheme effectiveness evaluation.On the basis of the algorithm proposed in thesis,the matrix algorithm based on system maturity is introduced to evaluate the risk of the scheme,and the multi-criteria method based on user preference is used to select the scheme.A set of complete framework of optimal selection of portfolio analysis scheme is constructed.Simulation experiments show that the model is effective and scientific.According to the actual application requirements,thesis is based on the above research content was designed and implemented a set of portfolio analysis scheme selection system,realized the equipment effectiveness evaluation were conducted for pre-production,combined with the technical maturity,maturity in risk assessment based on system,multiple criteria method based on user preferences for plan optimization,and other functions,to improve decision-making and reduce risk plays an important role.