Research On Investment Decision Of Port Integrated Energy System Based On Supply And Demand Forecast

As an important hub for cargo transshipment,ports play a crucial part in economic development,but they also have the problems of high energy consumption and high pollution.Port Integrated Energy System(PIES)is a concrete application of integrated energy system in ports,which can effectively realize the coordination,complementarity and mutual transformation of port energy systems.Because of its flexible operation mode,low-carbon and high consumption rate of renewable energy,more and more people attach importance to it.Based on the importance of shipping and ports to the economic development of our country and even the world,and the urgency of the demand for clean,efficient and green ports brought about by the restriction of energy structure and environmental degradation in the world,the port integrated energy system has gradually moved from theoretical design to engineering practice.This thesis discusses the investment decision method of integrated energy system,hoping to build a method for optimizing the investment scheme of port integrated energy system considering the uncertainty of supply and demand side,and give a new way of thinking for investment decision-making of port integrated energy system.First of all,this thesis establishes the long-term and short-term forecasting model of port supply and demand side.Taking photovoltaic power generation in port area as an example,a short-term power generation prediction model based on VMD-DESN is constructed.Taking the power load in port area as an example,a short-term load forecasting model based on VMD-LSTM is constructed.The ARIMA(p,d,q)model is constructed based on the time series data of supply and demand side for long-term forecasting.By determining different parameters,the ARIMA model can meet different forecasting requirements.The prediction results also provide support for the description of uncertainty in the following paper.Secondly,this thesis presents an investment decision method for integrated energy system,and this method takes into account the uncertainty of supply and demand side.First step,the uncertain factors of port integrated energy system are identified;In the second step,the method analyzes the cost and benefit of the port integrated energy system,and constructs the comprehensive income model and comprehensive cost model of the whole life cycle of the port integrated energy system respectively.In the last step,the cost-benefit model of multi-scenario simulation is generated by Monte Carlo method,and the investment scheme is measured.The evaluation indexes such as profit and net present value of the scheme are obtained by calculation,which can provide reference for investment decision-making.Finally,an empirical study is made on the constructed investment decision-making method.Five schemes of the investment plan of a port’s integrated energy system are calculated,and the results are statistically analyzed.Finally,the investment benefits of the five schemes are ranked by comparison,and the investment decision and project optimization are completed.In this thesis,through the research on the prediction technology of energy supply and demand side in the integrated energy system and the construction of the investment effectiveness model of port integrated energy system,an investment decision-making method of port integrated energy system based on Monte Carlo simulation considering the uncertainty of supply and demand side is proposed.It has important reference value and practical significance for investment decision research of integrated energy system.