Research On Incremental Distribution Network Planning And Investment Benefit Based On Full Life Cycle

The liberalization of the electricity distribution and sales side is the focus of a new round of power system reform.Its purpose is to introduce competition on the electricity distribution and sales side,improving the operating efficiency of the distribution side and promoting the marketing of the electricity sales side."Ordered Opening of Distribution Network Business Management Methods" further clarified that social capital can participate in the construction and operation of incremental distribution networks in an orderly manner and provide services to users in a market-oriented manner.And the government approved 105 incremental distribution network pilots in the same year.In principle,the incremental distribution network refers to the newly added distribution network.Since the asset income of the incremental distribution network needs to be separately accounted for and self-financed,whether it is for grid companies or social capital,it is necessary to pay attention to the economics of the incremental distribution network.Therefore,in the face of incremental distribution networks,investment entities need to study the investment benefits and risks to decide whether to invest.Since the investment benefit and risk evaluation are based on the known planning scheme,the comprehensive decision of the incremental distribution network planning schemes needs to be studied first.In view of the above background,the article studies the following three aspects:Firstly,a comprehensive evaluation index system of incremental distribution network considering economy,technology,environment and adaptability was constructed.On this basis,the comprehensive decision-making model of planning schemes based on improved IAHP and SE-DEA cross-efficiency model was proposed to evaluate and rank each candidate planning scheme,determining the optimal planning scheme for the next investment benefit and risk assessment.Then,an incremental distribution network operation model was built on the basis of the spot market mechanism,which is divided into: distribution network operator and electricity sales company operating separately and unifiedly.Then,considering the differences of the models,the incremental distribution network cost-benefit model based on a full life cycle is proposed,and the investment benefits of the incremental distribution network are quantitatively measured from the perspectives of dynamic economic evaluation indicators and EVA.Lastly,the distribution functions of the uncertainty factors under the two operating modes of the incremental distribution network are given.Based on the Monte Carlo method,the probability information of the dynamic economic indicators is obtained,and the probability that the project is not feasible is analyzed.Then,the risk that the net present value of the incremental distribution network is lower than the expected net present value which the uncertainty brings is quantified by introducing VaR and CVaR to evaluate the profitability of the incremental distribution network under uncertainty.The article realizes assessment of the investment risk of incremental distribution networks from two perspectives.