Research On The Investment Decision Model And Application Of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations From The Perspective Of Risk

With the rapid development of social economy and continuous progress,energy is in a state of exhaustion,and environmental pollution is getting worse.Electric vehicles have multiple advantages such as low-carbon,environmental protection,green and energy-saving,and are supported by the national government.They are a key development direction for the upgrading and transformation of the automotive industry.Electric vehicle charging infrastructure is a key pillar of the development of electric vehicles.It provides the most important power supply for the daily operation of electric vehicles,which is vital to the large-scale promotion and development of electric vehicles.However,at present,the problem of insufficient structural supply of charging infrastructure in my country is prominent,and the overall scale of charging piles is lagging behind,which seriously restricts the popularization of electric vehicles.In the meantime,affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the global economy is showing a downward trend.Under the dual pressure of the development bottleneck of the electric vehicle industry and the macroeconomic downturn caused by the epidemic,the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to classify the construction of charging piles as a key development area of "new infrastructure",and charging piles have entered a period of rapid investment and construction.Considering that the charging pile industry in my country is not fully mature in the market operation system,the investment amount of electric vehicle charging station projects is large,the payback period is long,and the investment risk is relatively high.How to use scientific decision-making to reasonably evaluate the value of the project and increase the success rate of investment on the basis of considering investment risks is a key issue that needs to be resolved in the rapid implementation of investment and construction in the electric vehicle charging station industry at this stage.On the basis of reading and sorting out a large number of relevant theoretical literature,this article first defines and sorts out basic concepts such as electric vehicle charging stations,investment risks,and investment decisions,and deeply analyzes the investment market and investment status of my country’s electric vehicle charging station industry,comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of my country’s electric vehicle charging station industry,and explores the traditional The limitations of the investment decision method in the electric vehicle charging station project,explore the feasibility of the real option method in the electric vehicle charging station project and the necessity of constructing an investment decision model.After fully identifying and analyzing the investment risk factors of the electric vehicle charging station project,the fuzzy mathematics theory is introduced to modify the parameters in the B-S model,and a fuzzy real option investment decision model is established.Finally specific cases,respectively,using the traditional NPV investment decision model and fuzzy real option investment decision model to make investment decisions,investment decisions comparative analysis of the results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of fuzzy decision model of physical investment in electric vehicle charging station project investment decision.The research conclusions of this paper provide a certain theoretical support and practical reference for the risk management and investment decision-making of electric vehicle charging station projects.This article closely combines the policy background of new infrastructure,adopts the research idea of "demand traction-situation Analysis-case study-break through the bottleneck",thoroughly explores the characteristics of the electric vehicle charging station industry,comprehensively considers the hesitation of the decision maker and the risk preference of the decision subject,and fully considers the value of the option brought by the project investment risk.In the B-S model,trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are introduced to modify the range of related parameters,and a new fuzzy real option investment decision model is established to quantify project investment risks,enriches and expands the research methods of electric vehicle charging station project investment decision.Research based on the electric vehicle charging station construction project actual investment,focusing on the depth of research to enhance the investment decision,with a certain degree of innovation and scientific practicability.