Study On Risk Management Of Sanjiang Canal Project In Shangrao City

Chinese economy is still developing rapidly,and the construction of urbanization and infrastructure is still accelerating.In recent years,the demolition of shanty towns and the transformation of old residential areas are also vigorously implemented.While the city is taking on a new look,the contradiction hindering its sustainable development is also increasingly apparent.One of the main contradictions restricting the healthy and sustainable development of the city is urban waterlogging.It can be said that most cities in China are faced with the embarrassment of "looking at the sea" in the rainy season.Therefore,the further development of urban water conservancy project is imperative,in other words,the rise of urbanization high-rise buildings should not ignore the construction of infrastructure,municipal roads,water conservancy and other supporting construction should be integrated into the construction plan.The waterlogging area in Tam Giang,Shangrao,is located in the Sanjiang new city,with a catchment area of 30.12 km2.The elevation of the surface in the waterlogging area is generally 64.5-70.0 M.Sanjiang district is the administrative centre of Xinzhou District District.Because of the low-lying land,waterlogging occurs in different degrees in the flood season,and the economic losses are great.In particular,in June 2010,the region was affected by heavy rain,the regional waterlogging water can not self-discharge,leading to severe waterlogging in the Tam Giang area,the water depth of 1-2 M.With the development and construction of the Sanjiang New City,the extension of the Tam Giang River Diversion Canal has been completed,and the reconstruction and expansion of the Tam Giang River Diversion Canal is imminent.Although Xiazhou waterlogging area has built power station,but the storage pool has not been implemented,in case of large flood,Xiazhou area will also occur waterlogging.With the implementation of the reconstruction and expansion of the Tam Giang Channel and the Xiazhou Reservoir regulation project,it is necessary for Sanjiang area to meet the standard of once-in-20-year flood control capacity,which can protect the sustainable development of local society and economy.At present,Shangrao municipal government pays great attention to the construction of urban water conservancy system.In recent years,the Sanjiang diversion canal project has become a key project in the construction of water conservancy projects in Shangrao City,shouldering the dual tasks of improving the city’s flood control and waterlogging control ability,which is related to the overall situation of social and economic development of Shangrao City.This project has the characteristics of long construction period,complex construction and strong technicality.These characteristics also bring many challenges to the risk management process of the project.Therefore,we must pay attention to risk management in the construction of Sanjiang diversion and supporting channel project.The key of risk management lies in the identification,early warning and response of risks.A comprehensive understanding of the risk management of the three river diversion and supporting canal is of great significance to ensure the quality,progress and cost management of the three river diversion and supporting canal project.At the beginning of this paper,the research background,purpose and significance of this study,the current research status of project risk management at home and abroad are described,sorted out and summarized,and the research direction and technical roadmap are determined.On the basis of a comprehensive and systematic review of the relevant theories of engineering risk management,this paper analyzes the principles of engineering project risk management,the contents and methods of engineering project risk identification,the early warning methods of engineering project risk and the coping strategies of engineering project risk,so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the comprehensive development of the later research.Then,based on the characteristics of water conservancy projects,this paper classifies the project risks,integrates the characteristics of Shangrao Sanjiang canal project itself,and integrates the characteristics of site selection,project scale,and design to analyze and sort out the potential risks that may appear in the project.Delphi method is used in this step.The identified project risks are divided into five categories(project management risk,project financing risk,project construction risk,project technology risk and project environment risk),and 20 sub categories(project efficiency risk,project sub project connection risk,project contract performance risk,project coordination risk,bidding management risk and project manager risk)Command risk,project financing amount risk,project financing cost risk,capital turnover risk,project change risk,cost overrun risk,project quality risk,project safety risk,early exploration technology risk,project construction technology risk,equipment technology level risk,talent equivalent density risk,environmental pollution risk,noise risk and solid waste risk).AHP is selected as the main method to evaluate the risk weight of Sanjiang diversion and supporting canal project,and the weight of each level index in the risk index system of Sanjiang diversion and supporting canal project is determined.At the same time,the importance of five types of risks in the project risk is ranked as follows: Project construction risk(0.550)> project schedule risk(0.234)> project technology risk(0.108)>p r o j e c t e n v i r o n m e n t r i s k(0.0 7 6)> p r o j e c t f i n a n c i n g r i s k(0.0 3 2).Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)method is selected as the quantitative method for the early warning of project schedule risk,project financing risk,project construction risk,project technology risk and project environment risk,and the optimized support vector machine(SVM)is selected as the quantitative method for the early warning of project overall risk.The conclusions are as follows: the early warning of project progress risk,project financing risk,project construction risk,project technology risk and project environment risk of Sanjiang diversion canal in Shangrao City are respectively middle warning(0.62),heavy warning(0.79),light warning(0.43),middle warning(0.67)and middle warning(0.66),and the comprehensive risk early warning is middle warning(0.54).According to the results of risk early warning,the paper puts forward the risk response measures.