Research On Reliability Of Safety Management System For Subway Shield Construction

At present,China has opened 41 subway construction cities,and subways have become an important way to alleviate urban traffic congestion.In the continuous expansion of subway construction projects,shield technology has gradually developed into the mainstream method of subway construction.Subway shield construction usually has the characteristics of large scale,complicated procedures,long period and large influence range.Therefore,there are more risks in the process of shield construction.In this paper,the safety management process of subway shield construction is regarded as an organic system.According to the characteristics of subway construction accidents,the catastrophe theory is used to analyze the reliability of the system.The main research is as follows:First,the research status of subway shield construction safety management,system reliability and catastrophe theory at home and abroad is combed and summarized.On the basis of system engineering theory,reliability theory and construction safety management principle,the reliability of subway shield construction safety management system is defined,the technological process and types of safety accidents of subway shield construction are analyzed,and the characteristics and difficulties of subway shield construction and the key points of construction safety management are summarized.On this basis,by studying the relevant domestic metro shield construction specifications,the reliability evaluation index system of the metro shield construction safety management system is established,and the reliability influencing factors of the construction safety management system are analyzed.Secondly,through analyzing the theoretical basis of catastrophe theory,the rationality of applying catastrophe model to construction safety management system is studied,the reliability evaluation model of subway shield construction safety management system is constructed,the catastrophe types in the evaluation model are determined,the hierarchical structure is established,and the concrete steps of catastrophe progression method are analyzed.Drawing cusp catastrophe model graphics to explore the mechanism of sudden change in reliability of subway shield construction safety management system,i.e.the process of accident.Finally,through the accident statistics method and expert questionnaire survey,the importance ranking of each indicator within the same level is summarized,and the complementary or non-complementary influence relationship between the indicators at the same level is clarified.The system reliability mutation is calculated according to the steps of the mutation series method The value is brought into the reliability evaluation level,and the simulation graph of the sharp point mutation model is established to visually display the reliability state of the system.The model is applied to engineering cases,and the feasibility of the model is verified by the case.The results show that the catastrophe theory can reasonably describe the occurrence of accidents in the safety management system of subway shield construction and can evaluate the reliability of the system.According to the results of the model research,scientific suggestions are proposed for the subway shield construction enterprises,and at the same time,it also provides a useful research method and path for the construction enterprise safety management system reliability research.