Research On The Optimization Of Qinghai Power Market Trading Mechanism Based On Demand Forecast

The vitality of electric power industry reflects the potential of overall development of society.It is of great significance for a region and a country to deepen the reform of electric power market and stimulate the vitality of electric power trading.Until now,the establishment of trading institutions in Qinghai province has been completed,and the market trading power has been surged,achieving preliminary establishment.Nevertheless,the overall trading market operation mode in the province has not yet been established and perfected,and the single power trading mechanism is not capable of satisfying diversified market demand for power purchase brought by the continuous growth of electricity consumption in the province.A gradual improvement of the proportion of installed and generated clean energy reduces the effectiveness of trading market,performing insufficient guidance on the operation of electric power as well as the promotion of new energy consumption in the province.In consideration of the current situation of power market operation,requirements of the flexibility of new energy for electricity market,together with electricity demand forecasting by using ARMA model in the future,an optimized scheme is designed for electricity market operation mode of Qinghai province.The paper uses the literature research method to sort out the current situation of domestic and foreign power market operation and transaction mechanism,and analyzes the problems of the current power market transaction mechanism in combination with the impact and challenges brought by the rapid development of new energy power generation.After that,the time series(ARMA)model was established and operated to predict the future power market demand in Qinghai Province.Based on the forecast results,the research conclusions are as follows: First,it is recommended to optimize the medium and long-term power contract transactions in Qinghai Province.In the annual and monthly contract transactions,match the forecast power consumption coefficient and optimize the contract.Second,it is recommended to prepare a spot trading mechanism under the model of an all-power depot,carry out day-ahead and real-time market transactions based on the new energy power generation period,and establish an auxiliary service market to cooperate.The third is to continuously design and develop new trading mechanisms such as futures trading mechanisms,and cooperate with the spot market to build a primary power trading market in Qinghai Province.Finally,in order to ensure the implementation of the optimization scheme of power trading market,series of safeguard measures are proposed respectively from aspects of trading mechanism protection,complete online functions of the trading system,and power trading market risksThe optimization scheme of Qinghai electric power trading market put forwarded in the paper fully considers development prospect of the provincial electric power trading market,providing theoretical basis and laying a firm foundation for Qinghai provincial electric power companied to further improve management levels and benefiting Qinghai provincial electric power industry in the meantime.