Research On Quality Risk Management Of Prefabricated Construction Based On Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Compared with traditional buildings,prefabricated constructions have the characteristics of convenient on-site construction and high efficiency,which makes prefabricated constructions develop rapidly in China,and relevant government departments have successively introduced various incentive policies to promote the development of prefabricated constructions.However,due to the transformation and upgrading of the construction model,imperfect relevant standards and systems,lack of experienced professional and technical personnel,etc.,the project has more or less potential quality and safety in the construction process,so that the quality of the project cannot be fully guaranteed.In addition,the quality risk of prefabricated constructions is not easy to quantify,and there is also a relationship between various risk factors,which has caused some difficulties for the in-depth study of prefabricated construction quality and safety management,and the relevant research needs to be supplemented and improved.Therefore,in order to effectively control the quality risk of prefabricated constructions and improve the quality and safety management level of prefabricated constructions,this paper proposes an prefabricated construction quality risk evaluation model based on fuzzy Bayesian network,and explores risk factors that have an important impact on quality safety through the strong reasoning and analysis ability of the model.And the correlation between various risk factors,so as to get targeted quality risk control countermeasures.The main research content and work of this article are as follows:First of all,the quality risk factors of prefabricated constructions are identified and analyzed.Through the induction study of the relevant literature on prefabricated construction quality risk management at home and abroad,the factors affecting the quality risk of prefabricated construction are preliminarily screened.The risk factor index is modified by questionnaire investigation method,and a risk factor index system for prefabricated construction quality is established.The quality risk factors in prefabricated construction design stage,production and transportation stage and on-site assembly construction stage are analyzed and studied by means of interpretation structure model method.The most fundamental and direct factors that cause quality risks in each stage are determined,and laid the foundation for the establishment of the fuzzy Bayesian network model in the following article.Secondly,a fuzzy Bayesian network model for quality risk evaluation of assembled buildings is constructed.On the basis of determining the variable range of each node,fuzzy mathematics and other theoretical methods are introduced to determine the node parameters of the Bayesian network,and the explanatory structure model diagram established above is converted into the topology of the Bayesian network,and then the quality risk evaluation module at all stages of the prefabricated construction is constructed by using Ge NIe data analysis software.The key risk factors in the quality and safety management of prefabricated constructions under each analysis dimension are obtained through the diagnosis and reasoning analysis,sensitivity analysis and the most general chain analysis of the model.The results show that the key and sensitive factors identified in the three analyses are basically consistent,among which the key and sensitive factors are: lack of relevant skills and experience,equipment problems,inadequate communication and coordination,and lack of quality management information systems,etc.Based on this result,the quality risk control countermeasures are put forward in a targeted manner.Finally,taking a prefabricated construction resettlement project in Beijing as an example,the quality risk of the on-site assembly construction phase of the project is analyzed.According to the analysis results,the relevant data information of the project is entered into the corresponding fuzzy Bayesian network model at this stage for inference and application,which clarifies the risk factors that the project should focus on controlling to reduce quality risk,so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of quality safety accidents.The above research results introduce the method of combining fuzzy theory with Bayesian network theory into the management of prefabricated construction quality risk,which enriches the existing research results of quality risk management.Established a more extensive prefabricated building quality risk factor index system,and constructed a hierarchical structure diagram of quality risk factors in the prefabricated building design stage,quality risk factors in the production and transportation stage,and quality risk factors in the on-site assembly stage based on the interpretation structure model.It provides a new way for the establishment of Bayesian network topology in the following paper.The fuzzy Bayesian network model for quality risk assessment of prefabricated constructions is constructed,and the targeted quality risk control countermeasures are put forward through multi-dimensional reasoning analysis results,which provides a more effective scientific management method for improving the quality and safety management level of prefabricated constructions.