Study On Safety Risk Ofprefabricated Residentialprojects Based On Bayesiannetwork

In recent years,with the continuous reform of China's construction industry and the constant promotion of national policies,the new building mode,which is mainly produced by the assembly construction,has been quietly raised.Compared with the traditional construction mode,it has high production efficiency,the construction technology innovation,resource conservation such outstanding advantages,but with the gradually popularization of prefabricated construction and application of the construction safety concerns are also starting to receive more attention.Safe construction can not only reduce the casualty rate effectively,but also ensure that the quality and progress of the project are not affected,thus achieving higher project benefit.Therefore,it is of great significance to establish a scientific and accurate construction safety risk assessment system for assembly construction projects to ensure the effective control of construction safety risks.In this paper,after extensive research prefabricated building related literature at home and abroad,the selection of the prefabricated housing project construction safety risk analysis and deal with as the research topic,mainly using the bayesian networks method to the safety risk factors in the process of construction,from two aspects of risk probability and risk loss rate for effective identification and scientific evaluation,and find a reasonable and effective risk prevention and control and the method to deal with.The paper firstly identifies the safety risks of the prefabricated residential projects.First preliminary risk factor is obtained by data statistics and classified on the basis of the theory of the risk cause,TOPSIS method is obtained using the questionnaire data to the combination of various risk indicators of the weights of attributes and are ideal value and the sum of squares of the distance between the negative ideal value,as a standard of risk indicators in order.Finally,the risk factors were sorted through the entropy theory,and the risk indicator evaluation system was constructed,and the reliability analysis of the reliability and validity of the questionnaire was carried out to ensure the reliability of the questionnaire.The safety risk factors of prefabricated housing project are analyzed by bayesiannetwork method.This paper describes the basic process of bayesian network construction,analyzes and finds the key risk factors through the structure learning and optimization of the reasonable bayesian network.Then the risk matrix method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were used to evaluate the overall risk,and the risk level was obtained and the risk acceptance principle was combined to balance the risk response.In the end,the application of bayesian network in the construction safety risk study of assembly type residential projects is discussed in detail.Taking an assembly project as an example,the data value of the questionnaire was compiled,the structure learning was carried out using K2 algorithm,and the structure optimization was carried out in combination with the expert opinion,and the reasonable bayesian network structure was constructed.The conditional probability distribution is obtained through parameter learning,and it is analyzed by reverse inference and sensitivity,and the key construction safety risk factors are obtained.Then the overall risk level of the prefabricated housing project was evaluated.On the basis of this,the author puts forward specific measures to deal with the safety risks of the construction of the prefabricated housing project,and provides some references for the managers.