Research On Risk Evaluation Of Construction Schedule Of Prefabricated Housing Project

Due to the advantages of high construction efficiency,high degree of mechanization,and low environmental pollution,prefabricated construction methods have been widely studied and applied in my country.Different from traditional construction methods,prefabricated buildings are mainly assembled by prefabricated components.The quality of prefabricated components,transportation efficiency,and component hoisting and installation quality,etc.will cause the construction progress of prefabricated residential projects to be delayed.Therefore,it is very necessary to use scientific and reasonable methods to identify,analyze,and evaluate the progress risks in the construction phase of prefabricated residential projects,and to clearly understand and effectively control the overall construction progress risks of the project.Based on the literature research method and case research method,this paper initially identifies many risk factors that affect the construction progress of the prefabricated residential project.Secondly,use the probability of occurrence of risk and the degree of delay in the construction period to describe the level of risk.According to the results of the questionnaire,the TOPSIS method is used to screen the initial schedule risk factors,and the construction schedule risk of the prefabricated residential project is divided into man-made risks,prefabricated component risks,and mechanical equipment.Risks,technical management risks and other risks,a list of risk factors for the construction schedule of prefabricated residential projects has been established,and a construction schedule risk evaluation index system has been established on this basis.Then,a Bayesian network model and a multi-factor fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model are constructed.According to the list of construction schedule risk factors,the construction schedule risk is evaluated from two aspects: the probability of risk and the degree of delay.Finally,the evaluation model is applied to engineering examples,and preventive and control measures are proposed for key risk factors,and its effectiveness is verified.The research in this article is of great significance for the construction party to fully understand the schedule risk factors existing in the construction of prefabricated residential projects,scientifically and reasonably formulate schedule risk prevention and control measures,and effectively manage the construction schedule risk.