Study On Development Scale And Policy Subsidy Of Time-Sharing Electric Vehicles: A System Dynamics Approach

The CO2 emissions reduction has been discussed long since the problem has been one of the most urgent issues we human beings faced with in 21st century.Shared Electric Vehicles,especially the popular Time-Sharing Electric Vehicles(TSEVs),combining the benefits of cleaner energy and more sufficient utilization,is considered as a sustainable future transportation tool with increasing support from governments around the world.In China,the Department of Transport and the Department of Housing Construction jointly issued "Guidance on Promoting the Healthy Development of Minibus Rental",endorsing the time-sharing car rental industry at national policy level for the first time in August 2017.Relevant subsidy policies had also been released to promote the implement of time-sharing car rental industry by provincial and municipal governments such as Shanghai,Beijing and other regions since then.The time-sharing car rental industry is developing quickly these years in China,thanks to the policy guidance and governments’ support to the industry.In 2017,the trading scale of Internet car time-sharing leasing market has reached 1.792 billion yuan,and more than 90%of time-sharing rental cars on the market are new energy vehicles.The whole market was estimated to be growing at a rate of more than 50%according to report from PwC Strategy&in 2018.Although numerous researches have been carried out in this domain,few has regarded the transportation system as a whole,and studied the TSEV development process with the inverse interrelations including the policy subsidies,user choice and user transformations fully considered in a dynamic way.This research is conducted under the background of the rapid development of time-sharing electric vehicles.It fills the previous academic gap and presents a System Dynamics(SD)model incorporating scenario analysis to simulate the uptake process of TSEVs and the effects the introduction of TSEVs will bring about in user changing in transportation tools including public and private sectors under different levels of government subsidies,thus make ex-ante assessment for the subsidies and evaluate the proper scope.The results suggest that it is not the greater the subsidy,the better the effect.Considering one of the purposes of introducing TSEVs being to attract as much as possible and thus reduce the private vehicle users,there should be a threshold for the user transfer.It is actually under low subsidy that private internal combustion engine vehicle(ICV)users are most attracted to the TSEVs compared to the medium and high ones.The gap between the simulation results and the common sense reminds us that ex-ante assessment and overall planning in the process of industry development are necessary.