Research Of Flood Control Compensation Operation Plan Of Nierji Reservoir Based On Flood Forecast Information

The frequent floods in our country have caused great harm to the society and economy.Reservoir flood control forecasting and dispatching is one of the most important non-engineering measures for flood control.How to make use of flood forecasting information to formulate flood control compensation dispatching plan to give full play to the flood control function of the reservoir has important research value.This paper takes Nierji Reservoir in the Nenjiang River Basin as the research object,and aims at the uncombined use of flood forecast information in the current flood control operation plan of Nierji Reservoir,and the results of design flood regulation fail to fully meet the flood control objectives of the reservoir.Based on the current flood forecast of the reservoir The analysis and combing of the scheme,the study and formulation of the Nierji Reservoir flood control compensation operation scheme,the feasibility of the scheme was demonstrated through the flood regulation calculation,and the influence of the flood forecast error on the flood control compensation operation of the reservoir was further analyzed.Provide guidance for flood control forecast dispatch.The main research content and results of this article are as follows:(1)The study combed the current flood forecasting plan of Nierji Reservoir,and analyzed and evaluated the availability of flood forecasting information.Based on the utilization of flood forecast information by Nierji flood control forecasting and dispatching,the current flood forecasting plan of Nierji Reservoir is divided into three types: Nierji Reservoir,natural flow of Qiqihar and flood forecasting plan of Nierji Reservoir.The upstream flood forecasting scheme should not be applied to the reservoir flood control compensation dispatching scheme due to the short forecast period,low forecast accuracy,and the forecast information has no effect on the compensation leakage of the reservoir.The Qiqihar natural flow forecast and the Niqi interval flood forecast are the same model forecast schemes,and the forecast period and forecast accuracy meet the requirements of the specification,which can be used to guide the flood control operation of the reservoir.(2)Researched and formulated the Nierji Reservoir flood control compensation dispatching plan.Based on the content that can be further improved in the Nierji Reservoir’s current flood control operation plan,firstly,a flood control compensation operation plan is formulated based on the flood control tasks of the reservoir and the current flood forecasting plan;through flood regulation calculations,the feasibility of the plan is analyzed and demonstrated.In view of the complexity of Nierji Reservoir’s compensation dispatch,the operability of the scheme under different conditions is further studied,and optimal dispatch models under different constraint conditions are constructed respectively,and the particle swarm algorithm is used to solve the problem;based on the analysis of the downstream peak shaving effect and upstream flooding situation of Nierji flood control compensation dispatch under different conditions,it provides suggestions for dispatching decision-making for reservoirs to ensure downstream flood control safety and reduce upstream flooding losses.(3)The study analyzes the adverse effects of flood forecast errors on the Nierji Reservoir’s flood control operation,and proposes the measures that can be taken to resolve the adverse effects of the reservoir.Aiming at the problem that the forecast errors in the flood control forecasting and dispatching of the reservoir are unavoidable and have adverse effects on downstream flood control,the distribution of flood forecast errors in Nierji Reservoir was studied and statistics,and the influence of flood forecast errors on downstream flood control safety was qualitatively analyzed.Based on the scenario of the occurrence of forecast errors,the adverse effects were quantitatively calculated to evaluate the Nierji Reservoir’s tolerance to flood forecast errors,and proposed measures to resolve the forecast error,such as adjustments to the flood control operation plan discriminant indicators,safe discharge targets,lowering the reservoir’s flood limit water level,etc.