Study On Risk Evolution Simulation Of Sponge Reconstruction Project In Old Residential Area

As an important part of urban renewal construction,the transformation of old residential areas is of great significance to promote urban quality.At present,the high intensity of urban development and construction and extreme climate make the urban stormwater problem more serious.In the face of urban drainage problems to be solved,the concept of sponge city arises at the historic moment.Therefore,paying attention to the sponge transformation in the organic renewal of old residential areas is an important implementation of the "urban double repair"policy.However,the sponge transformation of old residential areas is a complex project with multi-agent participation and multi-factor collaboration.There are still many risks in the actual construction process,and each risk factor shows a dynamic change trend.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to carry out the risk evolution simulation on the sponge transformation project of old residential areas for risk prevention and control.In this paper,the old residential sponge transformation project is taken as the research object.On the basis of concept combing,combined with the three-dimensional system of engineering project management,the focus of sponge transformation project management and the necessity of risk management are clarified.From the perspective of the whole life cycle of the project and stakeholders,this paper identifies and analyzes the risk factors of the old residential sponge transformation project,and explains the mechanism of different project risk categories.Based on the software platform of system dynamics,the simulation model of project risk evolution is constructed,and the risk response strategy is proposed on the basis of simulation calculation and analysis.The main research results are as follows:(1)Based on the perspective of the whole life cycle and stakeholders,42 initial risk factors are identified from the four categories of environmental policy,ideology,economic management and engineering technology,and the WBS-RBS method is used for correction.Finally,24 risk factors are determined,and the risk index system of the old residential sponge transformation project is constructed;With the help of ISM model and MICMAC model,the relationship between different risk factors is explored,and the interaction mechanism of different risk categories is expounded.(2)Relying on the system dynamics simulation platform,based on the relationship and interaction mechanism between risk factors,combined with the characteristics of Xi’an X old residential sponge transformation project,the SD simulation model of risk evolution is constructed from the interactive perspective of complex system and dynamic analysis;By adjusting the initial values of each risk factor in the environmental policy,ideology,economic management and engineering technology risk module,the sensitivity analysis of risk factors in different modules is carried out.The results show that the macroeconomic policy risk,public opinion risk,construction goal failure and design change risk are the most sensitive factors in different risk modules.(3)Aiming at the most sensitive factors of different modules,different project risk evolution simulation schemes are formulated to explore the influence of main risk factors on project progress,construction funds and project quality.The simulation results show that among the risk factors of the example project,the public opinion risk and the construction goal did not reach the two factors have a great influence on the project progress,construction funds and project quality.The occurrence of public opinion risk leads to the delay of project progress 96 days,and the construction fund is 2.41907 million yuan.Without any risk control measures,the actual project quality is 0.180,followed by the construction goal did not reach the risk,and the risk of macroeconomic policy and design change is relatively weak.This study explores the method of simulating the dynamic evolution trend of the risk of the old residential sponge renovation project with the help of computer technology,and puts forward the risk response strategy.The research results broaden the ideas of the risk management of old building renovation and sponge city construction projects,and also provide reference for the management department to carry out similar project risk management.