Impact And Risk Assessment Of Future Climate Scenarios On Inter-basin Water Transfer Project

With the development of society and economy,various factors such as human activities have led to an increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,which intensified the global greenhouse effect.Climate change affects water cycle elements such as rainfall and evaporation,resulting in greater changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of current and future water resources,and brings huge risks to the operation and management of future water conservancy projects.This paper takes the Han-to-Wei River water transfer project as the research object,and constructs the future climate model and Xinanjiang model-single and multi-objective reservoirs medium and long-term operation-Multi scheme risk assessment model.The research system analyzes the influence of different incoming water on the scale of water diversion and its guarantee rate of the Han-Jiwei Water Diversion Project,recommends the water diversion plan with the largest amount of water diversion in the future and the least risk,and proposes to deal with the future climate Effective measures for water diversion from the Han-Jiwei Project under changes.The research results provide a reference for the rational operation of the Han-Han-to-Weihe River Diversion Project under climate change in the future.The main research results obtained in this paper are as follows:(1)Select the global climate model data set under CMIP5,use statistical downscaling method to process the global climate data and input it into the Xinanjiang model,and predict three climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5),The future runoff process of the water transfer area.The statistical analysis method is used to analyze its trend,inter-decadal and intra-year change process.The results show that the water distribution will be extremely uneven in the coming year,the boundary of the flood season will be obvious,and the runoff in some scenarios will show a significant decreasing trend.(2)Three climate change scenarios,three water demand processes,and nine different inflow and demand schemes were sset up;a mid and long-term dispatch simulation model for the reservoir group of the Han-Wei River Diversion Project was established and the single-objective optimization of the largest water transfer volume was established.The dispatch model analyzes the impact of different future climate scenarios on the water transfer volume of the Han to Wei Project.The results show that under future climate scenarios,the Han to Wei Water Diversion Project cannot meet the multi-year average water transfer of 1.5 billion m3 and the guarantee rate of 95%.And the regulation and storage of the reservoir in the water-receiving area.(3)Established a multi-objective optimal scheduling model considering the amount of water transfer-net power generation,and used the NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm to solve the model,and obtained the solution set of multi-objective Pareto schemes under different climate scenarios in the future;selected a risk evaluation index system to establish the risk assessment model for dispatching schemes based on the principle of non-negative matrix factorization is proposed,and scheme 6,scheme 5,and scheme 6 with the largest water transfer volume and the least risk are recommended under three climate scenarios in the future.The research results are expected to provide reference basis and technical support for the future dispatch strategy of the Han-to-Wei transfer-basin water transfer project.