Research On Early Warning Of Project Investment Risk Of X Company

In recent years,China’s power industry has grown rapidly,and power construction enterprises have achieved good results in this process.However,the key to the stable and rapid development of electric power construction enterprises lies in their own improvement.Because many domestic construction enterprises lack perfect investment risk early warning methods,resulting in a lot of investment failure.In view of the above problems,this pap’er proposes a project investment risk early warning model to predict investment risk based on ordered probit logic.First of all,in order to understand the current situation of the company’s investment projects and the basic situation of risk early warning,I went to X company for three months to make an on-the-spot investigation,read the project data and investment plans of X company over the years,and conducted an exclusive interview with the project personnel of X company to get the first-hand information of the investment situation of X company.Then,34 indicators reflecting investment risk are selected from the company’s project investment plan and various investment analysis reports.At the same time,240 projects are randomly selected from more than 700 historical projects of the company as the training set,and then 240 projects are randomly selected as the test set.Then,the 240 randomly selected training sets are used to empirically test the indicators with stata15.0 software After regression and feature screening,17 indicators with large eigenvalues are obtained,and an early warning model with a fitting degree close to 80%is constru,cted.Then,the accuracy of the model is tested by using statal 5.0,and the total accuracy of predicting the risk level of 240 test sets is 87%.Finally,the model is applied to the prediction of new investment projects of X company,and the success rate of this project of X company is predicted Finally,in order to make the ear ly warning model of investment risk play the most effective role in X company,I put forward some systems to ensure the correct use of the model.The results show that the early warning model with 87%accuracy established by X company can be applied to the project investment risk early warning of X company,and it is more scientific than other models because it is a randomly selected sample.Through the construction of this investment risk early warning model,X company can correctly early warn the investment risk of new projects in the future,and take corresponding measures to ensure the sustainable operation ability of X company.On the other hand,it can also enhance the overall investment risk early warning awareness of X company,establish and improve the project investment risk early warning system.At the same time,this early warning method also has great reference significance for other industry companies to carry out investment risk early warning.