Research On Wind Power Project Investment Risk Early Warning System Model

With the development of wind power industry and in-depth research on the investment risk, wind power project investment investment is facing the complex risk. The existence of these risks causes that wind power investment risk is more and more bigger, so it’s important to research investment risk early warning of wind power project. A new method of investment risk warning application and practice are the research direction and purpose of this paper, so this paper carried out in-depth research.First, this paper discussed the uncertainty theory, expounded the reason why the theory is applicable to the uncertain investment risk warning, and explained with the theory of uncertainty is closely related to the probability theory and fuzzy theory. According to the actual investment risk early warning method, this paper selected the uncertain expert scoring method based on the theory, and improved. Secondly, this paper introduced the risk management in the investment risk early-warning theory in the way, listed the decision-making methods based on investment risk early warning value.At the same time, necessary elements of risk analysis in investment in wind power projects were analyzed, the investment risk factors were decomposd of:because of the high cost of power generation and fierce competition in the market, investment and financing risk and lead to the economic risks; because most equipment is not perfect and so on as a result of the technology risk; because they rely on government subsidies and serious, abandoned wind rate is high, the grid is difficult, as a result of the policy risks; because the wind resource distribution is uneven, to land requirements, such as higher as a result of environmental risk.Then, this paper respectively from the single, double and multiple three angles using uncertainty theory, improved uncertainty theory in a number of expert scoring and optimization of the probability distribution of the algorithm. The uncertainty theory was applied to the wind power project investment risk of multiple expert scoring questionnaire, according to expert questionnaire, the uncertain distribution was constructed, and the uncertain expectation and variance of the distribution of reliability screening.According to the specific circumstances of setting a threshold, and through the investment plan of the threshold judgment, through concrete examples illustrated the specific processes and methods of investment risk early-warning model of wind power project.Finally, this paper expounded the development process of wind power project investment risk early warning management system. Involved in this system to the client and server structure (C/S) structure architecture, referred to the MVC method to construct the model view, completed the framework of system design; client using VC++ to achieve the calling program could simulation automatically read the data of expert scoring, and passed to the server; the server using theory of investment risk early warning algorithm based on uncertain and used mixed programming between MATLAB and C++, could be a key that risk early warning value, contributed to the judgment of investors.Based on the research of wind power project investment risk early-warning management system, OpenXML for the first time to achieve word automatic reading function was used, the function of the system was enriched, the stability of the system was improved. In the course of this study, uncertain theory was innovatively applied to wind power project investment, early warning model was built, and the feasibility of the investment program to determine, provided sufficient theoretical guidance and investment guide for the decision makers in the wind power industry.