Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Residential Construction Project Cost

With the continuous improvement of China’s modernization,people’s requirements for the quality of life and living conditions are also higher and higher,and the development of the construction industry is also booming.Due to a large investment scale,long construction period and many participating units of engineering construction projects,the management of costs in engineering projects needs more stringent requirements.We need to analyze and identify the risk factors that affect the management of costs in engineering construction projects combining some theories about the management of costs and that of risks,and put forward corresponding measures to deal with the risk according to the risk factors identified,so as to reduce the costs and avoid some unnecessary losses to the engineering projects.Firstly,on the premise of reading literature and making an investigation,the author summarizes the relevant theoretical knowledge the management of costs and that of risks,and expounds the content system of risk identification,risk estimation,risk evaluation and risk disposition in detail.By a questionnaire survey and expert scoring method,the author identifies the risk factors of the management of costs in engineering projects,and establishes the evaluation index system of risk factors.Secondly,through a comparative analysis on various risk evaluation methods,this paper selects the method of evaluation of combining factor analysis with BP neural network model,and then uses the idea of mathematical statistics,and builds a evaluation model using SPSS and MATLAB software.In this paper,the evaluation model has been trained and verified by collecting the relevant data of every project under construction or completed,and the accuracy of the network evaluation model also has been verified by model simulation.Finally,combining with the practical engineering,the network evaluation model is used to evaluate the comprehensive risks of the engineering cases.Then the sensitivity analysis method is used to identify the most sensitive risk factor,and corresponding measures of risk disposal are put forward for the specific risk factors.To sum up,this paper analyzes the risk factors of the management of costs in construction engineering projects,and adopts the research methods of combining theory with practice to identify,evaluate and dispose the risks of the management of costs in engineering projects.It helps project managers to reduce costs,lower losses and take risk prevention measures in advance and provides some guidance and experience for similar projects.