Research On Cost Risk Evaluation Of EPC Project During The Stage Of The Construction Based On BP Neural Network

In recent years,the development of EPC projects in the construction industry presents a prosperous scene.In our multi-dimensional and complex market environment,the cost of general contractor in the construction phase of EPC projects is influenced by many risk factors,which in addition,construction projects usually have the characteristics of large volume,long duration and high quality requirements,thus making general contractor faced multiple risks.The construction stage is an important stage to make the drawings into reality.If the general contractor want to get the expected profits,it must deal with the various risks that will affect the cost during the construction stage.Therefore,risk management is particularly important.Through scientific and effective models and methods to analyze the cost risk,so as to effectively avoid cost losses and control the construction cost within a reasonable range.Based on the perspective of general contractor,this thesis carries out cost risk assessment of EPC project construction phase.Firstly,the definition,development,construction cost and construction stage of EPC mode are discussed.Secondly,the relevant risk assessment methods and the principles of risk assessment index selection are introduced.On the premise of laying a good theoretical foundation,carry out the cost risk assessment in the construction phase of EPC projects.Through literature reading,data analysis,brainstorming,empirical research,questionnaire and other multi-form risk identification methods,it is determined that the index system used in this thesis to study the cost risk in the construction phase of EPC project general contractor consists of 5 first-level indicators and 22 second-level indicators.Third,combined with the applicability,advantages and disadvantages of risk assessment methods,BP neural network was selected for risk assessment,and 18 groups of similar projects were selected.The input data of BP neural network were scored by relevant experts and sorted out after the cost risk factors,and the output data of BP neural network was quantitatively processed by fuzzy evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process.The index weight indicates that the construction management factors of the general contractor have a great impact on the cost of EPC project construction stage.The input and output data from groups 1 to 14 are used for learning and training of BP neural network,and the data from groups 15 to 18 are used for reliability testing of BP neural network.Finally,the relevant data of the cost risk of the Air University of China and France are brought into the BP neural network after training.The results show that the cost risks level of the Air University of China and France in the construction stage is low.Finally,according to the weight of each index,the actual situation,the corresponding risk countermeasures and suggestions are given.Through the BP neural network model in this thesis,the cost risk of the construction phase of the Aeronautical University of China and France can be quantified,and the cost situation of the project can be more accurately grasped,which is conducive to knowing the risk in advance and developing the corresponding cost risk emergency plan.It reduces the possibility of cost risk in construction phase to the lowest level,which provides the theoretical basis at cost risk due to the EPC project construction phase,and promotes better development of the EPC model in our country.