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Reach On Risk Management Of Cost During The Stage Of The Project Construction

Posted on:2016-02-01Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T ZhuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2272330464474128Subject:Civil engineering construction and management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the rapid pace of urbanization in our country, the development of the construction industry is also becoming increasingly fierce. Under our country’s current market environment, there are many factors that can influence the construction cost, especially in the construction process, due to large investment, long construction period, it often cannot achieve preset goals for cost control. Therefore, we must combine risk management to identify risk factors that affect the cost of construction, through the proposed targeted measures to deal with risks, so as to avoid the cost of those potential losses, thereby prompting the construction costs tend to be more reasonable.In this paper, through investigation, by analysising the previous literature, first of all, it describes the cost and risk management theoretical. Combining with the characteristics of risk, and puts forward the meaning of construction cost risk and the concepts of the risk management. This article introduces the principle of the risk factors identification and related theory, combined with the Delphi method and brainstorming method, using the way of questionnaire, this article identifies the cost of the risk factors in the stage of the construction, and according to the identification of the risk factors to establish the index system.Secondly, by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of risk assessment method, this paper selects BP neural network to risk assessment; then, to establish the cost of the risk assessment model based on BP neural network. In order to realize the model using MATLAB, the paper by collecting the materials of the construction or construction-related to training and testing the network; In addition, the simulation model to verify the accuracy and reliability of the construction of the network.Then, with the engineering example, using the built network model to comprehensive risk assessment. In order to make the evaluation results more intuitive and clear, in this paper, on the basis of BP neural network evaluation, with the use of sensitivity analysis, and to sort the evaluation of the main risk factors, to pave the way for the risk response.Finally, based on the risk response of summary and induction, and on the basis of engineering examples, it analysises the main sensitivity risk factors, and propose appropriate risk treatment methods.In conclusion, this article through in-depth analysis of the risk factors influencing the construction cost, adopt the method of modeling and empirical analysis, in this paper to identify, evaluate, response and other issues of the cost risk in the stage of project were discussed, to help the construction enterprises in the process of the implementation of cost risk management, targeted to improve its cost risk response capacity. Research achievements can rich and improve the construction cost risk management theory, and to guide the scientific management of construction project, and with theoretical guidance and practical function.
Keywords/Search Tags:Construction Projects, Cost Risk, Risk Management, The BP Neural Network, Sensitivity Analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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