Research On The Forecast Of Freight Volume And Route Selection Of The Three Gorges Project

The Three Gorges Dam on the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River is the world’s largest water conservancy project,and it occupies a very important position in China’s waterway transportation.However,the designed navigation capacity of the Three Gorges ship lock is limited,and the contradiction between the demand for passing the lock and the navigation capacity of the ship lock has become increasingly acute.The backlog of ships in front of the Three Gorges Project dam has become the norm.Based on this,there is an urgent need to predict and analyze the demand for freight across the dam,and fully understand the changes in transportation demand for each route through the dam.Dam-overturning transportation is a transportation method that can relieve the navigation pressure of the five-level ship lock and ship lift,and it is also an effective supplement to the navigation method.In order to reduce the restriction of transportation infrastructure conditions on the development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,it is necessary to use scientific forecasting methods to analyze the demand for freight volume passing through the dam.Forecasting the freight volume of each dam path can provide cargo owners when choosing transportation routes.Provide a basis,which can avoid the problem of congestion and high transportation cost caused by the cargo owner choosing the transportation path only based on experience.In actual situations,a reasonable and efficient transportation path can ensure the smooth connection between the transportation methods,and also The cost saving is of great practical significance to how the Three Gorges ship locks and ship lanes are unblocked.First of all,this paper uses grey relational analysis on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of freight volume to obtain the correlation between influencing factors and freight volume over the dam.Secondly,the transportation elasticity coefficient method,the water transportation coefficient method,the regression analysis forecasting method and the combined forecasting method are used to predict the transportation demand of the Three Gorges Dam.The results show that the freight volume of the Three Gorges Dam will reach11,147,600 tons in 2020,far exceeding the design of the Three Gorges ship lock.Navigation capability.Aiming at the problem of cargo crossing the Three Gorges dam,five dam-crossing routes are proposed and the unit transportation cost function of each route is established.The cost function is used to establish a route selection model based on the Logit model.The unknown parameters of the model are calibrated by SPSS software and run according to SPSS.The results analyze the impact of various influencing factors on the freight volume over the dam.The software results show that the transportation time,waiting time and unit transportation cost have a significant impact on the route selection;finally,the dynamic change analysis of the freight volume over the dam is performed based on the probability of the route selection,and Put forward relevant policy recommendations for the management of the Three Gorges Dam transportation.