Traffic Dynamic Guidance Method And Application For Variable Destination-Oriented

At present,the traffic guidance system is blind to some extent,which lacks deeper scientific research on the formation mechanism of traveler’s psychology and travel behavior,and cannot correctly capture travel demand,resulting in certain waste.Travelers often waste waiting time because they don’t get the road conditions ahead and the saturation information of service reception at their destinations in time.They want to change their destinations and re-plan their routes for regret psychology.Therefore,the research on traffic-induced travel with uncertain destination and route,unchanged destination demand and variable destination has important practical significance and application value.In this paper,travelers with non-rigid destinations are studied.Firstly,the non-compensated behavior characteristics of travelers with variable destinations are analyzed,and the functions of attribute tolerance threshold and attribute difference tolerance threshold are constructed.The definition and calculation method of regret index are put forward to measure traveler’s regret degree,and the threshold of minimum attribute difference and minimum regret value are determined.The analysis of non-compensated behavior provides the basis for the principle of information publish induced by anticipated regret.Secondly,the characteristics of traveler’s decision-making stimulated by anticipated regret are analyzed.Through quasi-experimental,the subjects’ impulse to change destinations,psychological conflict and intention to change destinations before and after are measured,and the influence characteristics of external and internal factors on their choice decisions are quantified.This paper reveals the decision-making mechanism of travelers changing their destination intention under the stimulus of anticipated travel guidance information.The results show that the stimulation of anticipated regret information can improve people’s decision-making and behavior,and make travelers of elastic destination show risk aversion.It provides a basis for the design of traffic guidance information publish content with anticipated regret.At the same time,the path planning model for variable destinations based on regret theory is constructed.The generation method of variable destination decision point set based on non-compensated behavior is provided.The regret function is used to reflect the influence of travelers’ different regret degrees on changing destinations.The dynamic path planning model for variable destinations is constructed to predict the probability of travelers choosing destinations,and guide travelers to change destinations reasonably.When the destination and the path are not clear,the path planning depends not only on the minimum distance between Origin Destination,but also on the regret value of the destination.Finally,the dynamic path selection of variable destinations based on ant colony algorithm is studied.Based on ant colony algorithm,a dynamic path selection optimization method considering destination-path regret impedance is proposed.By updating the road section selection rules,pheromone rules and node flow rules,the dynamic random regret path selection process of travelers with elastic destination demand is realized.The validity of the model is verified by a case,which shows the superposition and sharing effect of destination and route selection under different OD requirements.The research results of this paper can ensure that the Advanced Traveler Information System(ATIS)can adequately customize route guidance information and navigation services according to traveler’s demand,and provide basis for customizing and evaluating ATIS traffic guidance strategies.