Analysis Of Road Traffic Accidents Involving Elderly Drivers

The aging of the population is a severe social problem,which has severely impacted our country’s politics,economy,education,culture and others.With the advance of aging,the driver group in my country will also enter the "aged driving group".Due to the decline of physical functions,elderly drivers have problems such as slow collection of information,long reaction time,inflexible operation,and memory loss,which affect driving behavior,increase the risk of traffic accidents,and cause serious problems to the elderly drivers themselves and other road users.Therefore,studying the traffic characteristics and accident characteristics of elderly drivers,exploring the influencing factors and evolution mechanisms of elderly driver accidents will help to better grasp the traffic feature of elderly drivers,and provide a systematic theoretical methods for solving traffic problems under the background of aging.First of all,the research on the traffic characteristics of elderly drivers at home and abroad is sorted out,and analyzes the adverse effects of elderly drivers’ driving behavior due to changes in their physiologicaland psychological characteristics;Analyze the travel characteristics and accident characteristics of elderly drivers;Relying on accident data,the distribution characteristics of accidents involving elderly drivers are analyzed in terms of time,space,and factor attributes based on mathematical statistics,and compared with accidents of all ages to grasp the distribution law of accidents for elderly drivers.Then,based on the multivariate Logistic regression model,a single-layer analysis of the elderly driver accidents was carried out,the factors affecting the severity of the accidents were identified,and the influence of the status of each factor on the accident was analyzed;Based on the Bayesian network model,a multi-layer analysis of factors related to accidents involving elderly drivers is carried out.Intermediate node variables of collision＿type,casuality＿type,and driver’s injury＿degree are added.Explore the relationship between factors and the accident severity level by considering the interaction between variables,the model parameter learning accuracy and prediction accuracy are verified.Next,use the Clique Tree Propagation to perform Bayesian network inference,and analyze the probability distribution of the severity of the accident and the degree of driver injury under each factor from the perspective of a single factor and a factor combination chain.Explore the harm caused by accidents to the elderly drivers themselves and the adverse effects on road traffic safety;The Borda count method and the improved risk matrix method are used to analyze the risk of single factor and factor combination chain respectively,and identify the state of high risk factors.Finally,based on the risk analysis,proposing improvement measures,pointing out that the ideal travel tool for elderly drivers is small but protective vehicles such as cars,such as scooters;based on the aging social background,it is necessary to strengthen the elderly driving Safety education and driving skills assessment for employees;the focus of traffic prevention work should be on the improvement of the normalized traffic travel environment,rather than the improvement of the traffic environment under extreme conditions.