| In recent years,the focus of China's road construction gradually expanded to the remote mountainous areas in the west where topographic,geological and ambient conditions are relatively complicated and the engineering is more difficu lt.Secondary road in mountain area has become an important channel to develop mountainous resources,improve people's living standards and communicate with the outside world.It has made important contributions to promoting the development of mountainous economy and improving the social civilization of mountainous areas.However,it should not be neglected that at present,more than 70% of the extraordinarily serious traffic accidents causing mass ca sualties occur in the secondary road in mountain area,which is characterized by frequent traffic accidents and unceasing extraordinarily serious traffic accidents,which have caused significant loss of personnel and property and seriously endangered socia l and public safety.Therefore,in view of the realistic problems and urgent needs of improving the traffic safety of secondary road in mountainous area,this paper analyzes the regular patterns,characteristics and the causes of traffic accidents in secondary road in mountain area and conducts risk assessment.At present,this is the best way to improve the traffic safety level of secondary road in mountain area,and has important theoretical and practical significance.Firstly,based on the current situation of road traffic safety,this paper selects multiple angles to analyze the overall trend of road traffic safety in China at the level of various traffic accident indicators.Then,based on the data of traffic accidents of some secondary roads in mountainous areas,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of traffic accidents on secondary road in mountain area are analyzed by mathematical statistics.At the same time,combined with the characteristics of secondary road in mountain area,the t raffic safety features and existing problems are analyzed.The research contents provide theoretical basis for cause analysis of traffic accident from the perspective of accident pattern and for risk assessment of secondary road in mountain area based on t he rough set theory.Secondly,this paper takes the mountainous secondary road as the research object,and uses the actual collected traffic accident statistics of the typical secondary road in mountain area-Yuan-Shuang Road and a binary logistic regression model is constructed from the perspective of accident p attern.Three types of accident pattern including rear-end collisions,frontal collisions and scratches are selected as dependent variables.Seven types of influencing factors are selected from the as pects of road traffic environment and facilities,vehicl e types and so on.This research analyzes the causes of different traffic accidents under the complex driving environment of secondary road in mountain area in order to obtain the key influencing factors and degrees of different accident patterns.The resu lts show that the causes of different traffic accidents are significantly different due to the complex topographic conditions and driving environment of the secondary road in mountain area;The setting of separation zone between motorway and bike lane is a risk factor for rear-end and scratching accidents,and the setting of road sign and marking are protective factors for rear-end collisions,frontal collisions,and scratches;Large buses have the greatest impact on rear-end collision accidents and Medium-sized trucks have the greatest impact on frontal collisions,but have the least impact on scraping accidents;The influence of adverse weather on rear-end collision is 3-4 times of that of normal weather;When driving at night without street lighting,the probability of rear-end collision is 1.312 times that of daytime.The research content provides the theoretical basis and data foundation for the risk assessment of secondary road mountain area based on rough set theory in the next chapter.Finally,based on the principle of determining the risk assessment indexes of secondary road in mountain area,on the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of existing evaluation in dexes,combined with the characteristics of the risk factors and the inherent attributes of secondary road in mountain area,an index system suitable for risk assessment of secondary road in mountain area is constructed.On this basis,the classification c riteria of various qualitative and quantitative indicato rs in the evaluation index system are defined and divided.On this basis,the classification criteria of various qualitative and quantitative indexes in the assessment index system are defined and div ided.At the same time,a comprehensive risk assessing m ethod of secondary road based on rough set theory is proposed.The specific processes and steps include: establishing the comprehensive assessing information system and decision-making table——discrete processing of index data——index screening based on rough set——weight determination of index based on rough set——comprehensive assessing synthesis,and the assessing method is tested and analyzed by selecting cases of secondary road in mountain area.The study found that the risk assessment index system of seco ndary road in mountain area and the risk assessing method based on rough set theory are reasonable and scientific.The research results can provide theoretical guidance and methodological support for the realization of traffic safety of secondary road in mountain area. |
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