Preliminary Study On The Quantification Of Weather Impact On Air Traffic

With the rapid development of civil aviation industry, the increase of traffic flow in limited airspace resources makes adverse weather an increasingly significant impact on air traffic. The future objectives of civil aviation is to develop strategic decision support capabilities, which requires the integration of weather information into the decision process The quantification of weather impact on air traffic is a key component in the decision support tool development.The research priority is the analysis of terminal weather impact on airport operation and its quantification. In the beginning, several typical methods to quantify the weather impact on air traffic were introduced. Established the hard and soft constraints of several important terminal weather phenomenon based on analysis and regulations such as flight rules. Then, by utilizing the classification technique of data mining, the multinomial logistic regression model was constructed based on the analysis of airport arrival rates and weather information. The model was built from the historical terminal weather information and traffic data, and the terminal weather impact on airport arrival rate was then analyzed and quantified. In the end, the case study of the model was conducted. At the data preprocessing stage, weather information was extracted under certain rules and the airport arrival rates classification threshold was set. Built the model in data mining tool and the model results was analyzed, meanwhile the performance was evaluated and the model application analysis was proposed.