Research On Carbon Emissions Trading Connection Strength Among Chinese Provinces Under The Background Of Territorial And Spatial Planning

In order to realize the carbon emission reduction commitments made by China,it is clear that the territorial and spatial planning should make contributions to carbon emissions peak target.And the series of decisions,policies and practice show that carbon emisisions trading will be related to the territorial and spatial planning.Based on the above background,the following research has been done.In the second chapter,this study completes the construction of the theoretical basis.First of all,this study found that there is a complementary relationship between territorial and spatial planning and carbon emissions trading.Secondly,if carbon emissions trading can play a role in carbon emissions reduction,the carbon emissions trading market must be vigorous.And generally,the market’s vitality is related to the intensity of trading connections between subjects who belong to the market.At the same time,the market needs government interventions.The government intervention need to achieve the relative stability of carbon prices and promote the overall level of low-carbon construction.Thus,this research summarizes the influencing factors of these two levels in order to provide the evidences to the following study.Considering that Chinese carbon emissions trading market has not been used,provincial carbon trading connections need to be calculated by model simulation.Therefore,the study also summarizes the various methods for measuring the economic relations.And the third chapter puts forward the method of measuring the connection strength of provincial carbon emissions trading.First of all,through the analysis of the carbon emissions trading market’s operating framework,I found it clear that if the subjects can provide what they need to each other,there will be carbon emissions trading between them.Thus on the one hand,the territorial and spatial planning should improve the subjects’ abilities in order to make it easy for every subject to provide products or survices.On the other hand,under the background of the territorial and spatial planning,government should make contributions to the process of carbon emissions trading between subjects.In order to enable the above effects to be implemented in China,this study generalizes all subjects which are located in the same province into a provincial carbon trading unit.Therefore,there are 31 such units in mainland China.On the above basis,through changing model parameters,a modified gravity model is proposed to implement effects into the specific index.In this model,the ability mentioned above in this study is defined as trading potential.And the quality index in the traditional model is stead by it.In the fourth chapter,this study calculates every provincial carbon trading unit’s trading potential based on AHP.The results show that there are many units which have low trading potential.And the reason is that they can not do well in the low-carbon policies and institutions and low-carbon ecological space and climate.In addition,the k-means clustering method is used to classify the units based on their trading potential.Finally,the units are divided into four categories,which provides a reference for each unit to form appropriate policies.After the calculations,the fifth chapter focuses on the simulation analysis of the provincial carbon emissions trading connection strength in different carbon emission reduction pressure contexts.In this chapter,three kinds of carbon emission reduction pressure contexts are set up to determine the gravity coefficient in the modified gravity model.Then,based on Arc GIS and social network analysis,this paper gets the following main conclusions.Firstly,as for the low carbon emission reduction pressure context,there are few strong connections between units.And in terms of connection intensity,the "Matthew effect" between the core area and the marginal area is significant.In addition,there are not units who make contribution to expand the carbon emissions trading network in the marginal area.Secondly,in the two strong pressure contexts,there are more strong connections and territorial and spatial planning enhance the intensity of provincial carbon emissions trading connections.However,there are some differences in two strong pressure contexts.In the first one,the carbon emissions trading network extends to the northeast,northwest,and southwest.But in the second one,the carbon emissions trading network extends to the northeast and southwest.To sum up,this study summarizes the realistic applicable context.At the first,when taking cost saving as the principle and maximizing the coverage of the carbon emissions trading market as the guidance,the first strong pressure context can better achieve the development expectations.In this context,if a unit has made more contributions to the amount of carbon emissions in the past,it will need to make more contributions to the amount of carbon emissions reductions in the future.Then,when the purpose is to enhance the intensity of existing carbon emissions trading connections and to expand the scope of the carbon emissions trading market in the Northeast and Southwest,the second strong pressure context can better achieve the development expectations.In this context,the historical amount of carbon emissions of each unit will be ignored,and each unit will need to complete the same carbon emissions reduction rate in the future.