Risk Evaluation Study Of Centralized Heat Supply Pipe Network Based On Kent Method

With the rapid development of the energy industry,pipeline safety has become a very important issue in the development of the industry.At present,the scale of China’s heating industry is gradually expanding,and the heating system has now become an important urban infrastructure,ensuring its safe and reliable operation is an important issue concerning people’s livelihood.Since the heating system is a large and complex system,and the heating pipe network is its weakest link,pipeline safety accidents occur in the operation process.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate the risk of the centralized heat supply network.At present,there have been many research results on pipeline risk evaluation technology at home and abroad,and the research shows that the application of risk evaluation technology is more mature in oil and gas pipelines,but the application in heating pipeline networks is less and the technology is not mature yet.In this paper,by reviewing domestic and international pipeline accident statistics literature and collecting accident information from the Internet and specialized We Chat public websites,we conduct pipeline failure event statistics,analyze the failure frequency and accident causes of pipelines,and compare the failure frequency and percentage of a certain type of accident causes to derive the main failure factors.Based on the statistics of pipeline failure data and accident analysis,and with reference to the classification of risk factors of other pipelines,the risk factors of heating pipelines are identified and various risk factors of heating pipelines are summarized.After that,the failure possibility and failure consequences are analyzed,and the risk evaluation indexes of heating pipelines are established from these two perspectives.Finally,the risk evaluation model is established by quantifying the risk evaluation results by taking "pipe section" as the scoring unit and determining the scoring method based on the basic principle of Kent method.Determination of indicator weights based on two methods: the literature statistical method and the questionnaire method.Allocate the failure factors and failure consequences at all levels according to the weights,determine the scoring rules,formulate the expert scoring table,and divide the pipe network into pipe sections according to certain factors(pipe diameter,pipe service life,etc.),and calculate the risk value of the pipe sections according to the expert scoring results.Using the risk matrix principle,the risk level of the pipe section is classified,and different management measures are proposed for the pipe sections with different risk levels.Calculation and analysis of pipeline accident statistics to derive pipeline accident cause statistics and failure frequencies for each country,and comparison of the failure frequencies and percentages of each type of accident cause.It is calculated that the main failure factor of heating pipeline is corrosion factor,and the accident ratio reaches 72%.Completing the identification of risk factors for heating pipelines through accident information collection and summarization.The risk evaluation index of heating pipe network is proposed from two perspectives of failure possibility and failure consequence.The weights of risk evaluation indicators were calculated by literature statistics method and questionnaire method respectively,and corrosion and personal impact were the largest indicators of failure possibility and failure consequences respectively.The weights of corrosion indicators determined by the two methods are 0.33 and 0.48 respectively,and the weights of physical impact indicators are 0.46 and 0.40 respectively.Based on the Kent method,we completed the risk expert scoring table for the centralized heating pipe network,determined the scoring method,and completed the classification of risk levels.