| (1)With the rapid development of China’s society and economy,urban rail transit has developed rapidly in China.At present,China’s urban subway is in the peak period of large-scale construction and operation.Metro has become the first choice for urban citizens due to its large volume,safety,efficiency,punctuality,environmental protection and other characteristics.(2)However,for the vast majority of cities in China,the subway is a new means of transportation that has been developing rapidly in recent years,there is a lack of experience and refinement in subway operation and related management and service.With the continuous expansion of urban rail transit network and the continuous increase of passenger travel demand,passengers’ walking and service facilities’ services are also random.Problems such as low efficiency of passengers entering the station,low safety of passengers walking,low service capacity of the station,and great difficulty in station management have emerged,it is still difficult to solve complex practical problems from the perspective of passenger flow organization.How to improve the station service capacity,optimize the station passenger flow organization,and improve the safety and efficiency of passenger riding has become a key issue to be studied in rail transit transportation organization.(3)Existing research on the exploration on time and space distribution of passenger flow organization were limited to the randomness of discrete passenger flow arrival time and facility service time.Research based on statistics and probability theory were rare,therefore,the analysis and definition of passenger flow organization was imprecise from the actual situation.In this paper,a method combined the stochastic process theory with the passenger flow organization method was proposed to analyze the passenger behavior in the station,a passenger flow distribution model and a queuing model were proposed,and a typical station was selected for example analysis.From the perspective of passenger flow organization and station space layout optimization,an in-depth study of inbound passenger flow was made in this paper.Finally,Anylogic simulation software was used to verify the reliability of the model.The main work contents are as follows:(4)In this paper,the concepts and classification of passenger flow organization,streamline and streamline conflict points were introduced,the stochastic process theory and typical one-dimensional and two-dimensional continuous random variables and their distribution characteristics were expounded,and the calculation ideas for solving two-dimensional continuous random variables were given.Combining the stochastic process theory with streamline analysis,a theoretical foundation was laid for the establishment to analysis the following two-dimensional spatial passenger flow dispersion model.(5)On the basis of stochastic theory and streamline analysis,and classified the Reference Cellular Automata,a two-dimensional subway pedestrian traffic flow stochastic model was constructed by dividing the station area and counting the passenger flow in each area.Based on the distribution model of passenger flow in each region,the joint distribution model of passenger flow OD,namely the station spatial layout planning model,was further constructed.(6)Combined with the calculation idea of two-dimensional continuous random variable solution,the probabilistic statistical Monte Carlo method was used to solve the random model of pedestrian traffic flow and station space layout planning model.By generating random numbers and random sampling,the dispersion law of passengers in the station was simulated.By changing the parameter values,different characteristics of passenger flow distribution were obtained.From the perspective of improving passengers’ travel efficiency and safety,the model results were analyzed by selecting two indexes,namely the average time of passengers arriving at the station and the passenger flow density,and the better results were selected to realize the optimization of station space layout.(7)In this paper,through the thought of existing queuing system,the Monte Carlo method was used to solve the passenger queuing model.Two sets of random number sequences satisfying the respective distribution characteristics represent the arrival of passenger flow and service time of facilities and equipment respectively,and random sampling and simulation were conducted for the queuing behavior of passengers.By changing the number of facilities,different queue length and waiting time of passengers were obtained,and the optimal facility configuration scheme was determined.(8)According to the spatial layout planning model and queuing model proposed in this paper,an example analysis was carried out on Xi ’an Road Station,which is the junction of Dalian metro line 1 and Line 2.based on the preliminary data investigation,the optimization scheme was obtained by putting all parameters into the model.In addition,Anylogic simulation software was used to verify the initial scheme and optimization scheme.The results show that the proposed model and optimization scheme based on the model can effectively improve passengers’ arrival efficiency,walking safety,station service level and equipment utilization rate,and provide theoretical support for subway station passenger flow organization and operation management. |