Study On Risk Assessment Of Catenary System Considering Geographical And Meteorological Factors

As the power source of electrified railway,the safety and reliability of the traction power supply system are important for high quality operation of railway transportation.Traction power supply system is composed of traction substation and catenary.Among them,the catenary is completely outdoors without backup devices.Compared with other power supply and transformation equipments in the traction substation,the service environment of catenary is much complex and changeable,and it is more susceptible to the external environment.It is the most vulnerable link in the traction power supply system.Through years of field historical statistics,it is shown that the catenary is obviously affected by geographical and meteorological factors.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze the external geographical and meteorological risk factors suffered by the catenary system in the operation process,and carry out quantitative analysis and evaluation.In this context,this paper takes the catenary of electrified railway as the research object,and evaluates the risk of catenary under the premise of considering the influence of external geographical and meteorological factors.First of all,combined with the existing historical data,the catenary failures,space distribution of catenary failures and external influence factors resulting in catenary failures are conjoint analysed according to the actual running environment of catenary in this paper.Under the influence of external geographical and meteorological factors,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of catenary failures have been deeply excavated.Based on the correlation analysis,the correlation coefficient between the historical failure data of the catenary and the geographical and meteorological factors is qualitatively calculated.The key risk factors which affect the normal operation of the catenary are identified.Regard to the potential loss of the outage of electric locomotives caused by the catenary failures,the high efficiency and service characteristics of railway transportation are fully considered in this paper.The risk consequence indicators of the catenary tripping failures are established in different power supply regions,and quantitatively evaluates the catenary cumulative tripping risk combined with external influencing factors.Then,based on K-means algorithm,the risk classification method of catenary is proposed,and the catenary cumulative tripping risk is visualized with GIS technology.Moreover,the risk contribution indicator of each catenary component is proposed,so as to identify the influence degree of the change of catenary components failure rate under the influence of different geographical and meteorological factors on the catenary cumulative tripping risk.Finally,for the consideration of real-time assessment of catenary risk,the risk field model of catenary is established combining with the actual operation environment of catenary in this paper by analogy with the theoretical and mathematical models of gravitational field,economic field,electromagnetic field and other physical fields.Based on the classical field theory,the established risk field model can analyze the composition and variation characteristics of each physical quantity in the risk field under the superposition and coupling action of single or multiple risk sources.At the same time,considering the dynamic changes of different risk sources,the risk field model can simulate the distribution of the catenary risk in space.The real-time risk assessment of the catenary can be realized with the risk field.Starting from the external environment of catenary,the risk probability and risk consequences of the catenary system under the influence of different geographical and meteorological factors are comprehensively considered in this paper.Considering the catenary historical operation and maintenance data and the real-time changes of risk sources,the risk assessment of the catenary system is realized.Through theoretical research and analysis of calculation examples,it is shown that the method proposed in this paper can help the on-site operation and maintenance personnel of the catenary to realized the risk level of the catenary system in time,and provide scientific and reasonable decision-making for the development of the operation and maintenance strategy of the catenary.