Research On Parking Behavior Modeling And Demand Forecasting Of Shared Parking

As the level of motorization increases,the number of motor vehicles continues to rise,and parking resources can no longer meet the existing parking demand.The parking problem has gradually become a problem that needs to be solved when traveling.In solving the problem of "difficult parking",the current stage is mainly to build parking lots and increase parking spaces,but this cannot solve the problem effectively in the long term.The parking problem should make full use of existing parking resources and increase the utilization rate of parking spaces.Due to the differences in parking characteristics between parking lots with different land properties,parking needs can be complemented.Therefore,shared parking between parking lots of different land uses is a new idea to solve the problem of "difficult parking".Distribute the over-saturated parking demand to the surrounding idle berths through shared parking,revitalize the idle parking resources,and improve the utilization rate of berths.Therefore,based on the above analysis,this paper studies the two aspects of parking space selection behavior and shared parking demand.The specific research content is as follows:(1)In terms of berth selection behavior,analyze the impact of parking selection behavior on economic factors,time factors,parking lot factors,and parking occupants.Explains the basic theory of the choice behavior model.Based on the theory of planned behavior,four psychological latent variables of behavior attitude,subjective norms,perceived behavior control and behavior intention are selected to design observation variables.At the same time,an investigation will be carried out on the personal attributes,travel attributes and parking attributes of the parkers.The mixed choice model combining the multi-index,multi-cause model and the binomial Logistic regression model is used to analyze the willingness to use shared parking and the behavior of shared parking selection.The research results show that behavior attitude,subjective norms,and perceived behavior control all have a positive and significant impact on behavior attitude;personal attributes,parking attributes,and psychological latent variables all have a certain impact on parking berth selection behavior,but travel attributes have a certain impact on parking berths.The impact of parking decisions is not significant.(2)In terms of parking demand forecasting,summarize and analyze the existing parking demand forecasting methods from the three aspects of land use,transportation and social activities.Through the analysis of the four influencing factors including location conditions,parking turnover rate,time change coefficient,and motor vehicle ownership in the parking generation rate method,the current situation and target year single land type parking demand forecast model are established.The parking demand prediction model uses a dual-objective optimization model.First of all,the generalized cost function is established according to the significant factors affecting the parking attributes of parkers in the study of parking choice behavior.Secondly,considering the impact of the parking detour distance on the parking demand during the shared parking process,the objective functions are established respectively.Then,build a shared parking demand forecasting model.Finally,the incremental allocation method is used to solve the model.(3)Select residential land,commercial land and office land near the intersection of Xintang Road and Fengqi East Road in Jianggan District,Hangzhou City as the research objects.Forecast the parking demand in the case of single land use in the current situation and target year and in the case of shared parking in the target year.Through the comparison of the prediction results,it can be obtained that in the case of a single land use,the parking demand of the parking lot during peak hours will exceed the parking capacity.However,in the case of shared parking,the parking demand of various land types during peak periods will be shared by other parking lots,and the overall parking demand will be met.This shows that shared parking is feasible and applicable in solving the contradiction between parking supply and demand.