Medium Voltage Distribution Network Planning And Assessment Of Dongguan River Region

Distribution network planning is a normal work of electric power enterprises and plays an important role in the 14 th five year plan for power grid construction.Distribution network can builds a bridge between power supplies and users,whicj is an important and basic infrastructure to guarantee people’s electricity consumption and social development in our country.Distribution network planning plays a vital role in the development of power system.In pace with the rapid development of the river region,the existing distribution network is difficult to satisfy the increasing load,and the problem of power supply reliability is becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,overall distribution network planning has become the key link development for power supply enterprise development.This article takes the river region as research to verifies the reliability,scientificity and validity of the distribution network planning by load forecasting,power supply reliability analysising and comprehensive assessment of planning.The main work of the article includes:This article mainly intruduces the basic concepts and principles of grey model,and puts forward the load forecasting method of grey model.Using grey model including the test method of relative errors and the test method of post-difference to forecast the electricity load of the river region from 2021 to 2025,which can raise accuracy of the result,it shows a small range error and high accuracy forecast data.It means that grey model can deal with the shortcoming of less reference data and low accuracy of traditional load prediction.Secondly,it can provide a calculation method for key index by analysing the relevance between the key indexes affecting power supply reliability and the various indicators including grid structure and equipment elements.The grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the correlation degree of some important indicators following the distribution network investment changes.The data shows that the average power supply availability increases gradually with the gradual increase of distribution network investment.It means that the average power supply availability has the greatest correlation with power grid investment.Finally,analysing the existing problems are summarized as a whole by combing with the current situation of the distribution network in the river region.The programme divides the influencing factors of distribution network evaluation into different levels by analysing hierarchy process.After that,using the sum product method and scale method to analyze the matrix.Combing with the experience of local experts into the structure of all levels,this article forms a specific index system to provide corresponding reference for electric power enterprises to make long-term planning scheme.