| With the rapid development of global urbanization,the problem of urban diseases has become increasingly prominent,and various unknown risks and uncertain factors restrict the sustainable development of cities.How to improve the city’s ability to deal with unfavorable factors such as natural disasters and environmental pollution and enhance the city’s ability to resist uncertain risks has become a new subject to be studied urgently in the disciplines of geography and urban development.In this context,improving the urban resilience of Inner Mongolia has a positive impact on solving the problems and sustainable development of cities in the underdeveloped border areas of my country.In this paper,12 league cities in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are the study areas.Based on the systematic perspective of urban economy,society,ecological environment and infrastructure,and using the index data from 2010 to 2020,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for urban resilience in Inner Mongolia,including 4 criteria levels,For 27 specific indicators,the comprehensive weighted evaluation model,BP neural network prediction model and spatial autocorrelation analysis method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience level from 2010 to 2020 by using Arc GIS spatial analysis tools,and forecast the urban resilience level from 2021 to 2025.The evolution trend of resilience,and put forward a strategy for improving urban resilience in Inner Mongolia.The following conclusions are drawn:（1）During the period from 2010 to 2020,the change trend of urban resilience level of each league city was different.Cities such as Hohhot and Baotou showed a fluctuating growth trend.The development of cities such as Hinggan League was relatively flat,and the overall trend was slow upward.In terms of space,the urban resilience level has an uneven trend of development,with the overall trend of "high in the west and low in the east" and local "expansion from low to high".Highly resilient cities are the core cities in Western Inner Mongolia,such as Hohhot,Ordos and Baotou,while moderately resilient cities are the 6 resource-based cities headed by Xilingol League and Hulun Buir City,while low-resilient cities are the marginal areas lacking resources such as Alxa League,Bayan Nur City and Hinggan League.The overall level of urban resilience in the study area is relatively low.（2）The BP neural network is used to simulate and predict the urban resilience of the study area from 2021 to 2025.It is found that the urban resilience level of each league city remains unchanged or has a slight upward trend from 2021 to 2025,and cities such as Wuhai City and Tongliao City are more volatile.It shows that the overall urban resilience development of the league cities is in an unstable state,the average urban resilience is about 0.34,and the resilience level of the future study area is still low.After the city’s resilience level dropped sharply in 2020,the city’s resilience level will slowly recover as a whole in the next five years.It shows that the city’s resilience and self-healing ability have improved when similar to the epidemic and other shocks and disturbances to urban development and security.（3）Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of urban resilience in the study area,it is found that there is still a lot of room for urban resilience improvement.In terms of urban economic resilience,by optimizing the industrial structure,actively promote the integrated development of leisure agriculture,characteristic animal husbandry and tourism in Sumu Township,Qixian County.In terms of urban social resilience,we will improve supporting policies for talents,implement industry-university-research integration,optimize and improve the layout of medical services,and respond quickly to emergencies such as epidemics,infectious diseases,and natural disasters.In terms of the resilience of the urban ecological environment,realize the integration of multiple regulations,strengthen the supervision of environmental protection,and save energy and reduce emissions;introduce high-tech industries and advocate green and low-carbon lifestyles;innovate supervision methods and implement intelligent ecological monitoring in order to strengthen pollution prevention work.In terms of urban infrastructure resilience,expand the service radius of public facilities,improve lifeline projects,complete emergency infrastructure systems,and enhance the ability to resist risks in the vulnerable space of transportation facilities. |
