Research On Charging Load Prediction Of Electric Vehicles Based On Trip Stochastic Simulation

The problem of energy shortage and environmental pollution in today’s world is increasing day by day.Compared with traditional fuel vehicles,electric vehicles have unique advantages such as reducing atmospheric pollutant emissions,saving fossil energy and alleviating environmental degradation,have received extensive attention from governments and all sectors of society in recent years.With the increasing scale of electric vehicles,accurately simulating the travel characteristics and charging requirements of electric vehicles has become an urgent problem to be studied.Aiming at the randomness of the spatial-temporal transfer and charging behavior of electric vehicles,this paper proposes a method for predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of electric vehicles charging load based on stochastic travel simulation.First,consider the intermediate stops on the way of vehicle travel,and combine the concept of trip chain to construct spatial-temporal variables that describe user travel characteristics.Based on the actual travel survey data of residents,and based on Monte Carlo simulation method and Markov chain,a user travel simulation model considering random intermediate stops is established,so as to realize the stochastic simulation of the user travel process.Then,on the basis of the travel simulation,considering the relationship between the residual power level after the vehicle ends and the user’s willingness to charge,users are divided into demand-type and random-type according to the different levels of residual power for the next travel demand.For demand-type users,consider the charging demand generated by travel needs and judge the user’s charging mode selection according to the urgency of the charging demand,so as to simulate the user’s charging decision.For random-type users,considering the common influence of time-of-use electricity price and parking time on their charging behavior,the fuzzy inference method is used to simulate the user’s charging judgment process and calculate the user’s charging probability in different areas.Finally,taking a certain area as an example,based on the method proposed in this paper,the charging load of electric private vehicles in different areas is simulated for one day,and the temporal and spatial distribution of charging load under different charging behaviors of users is analyzed.The results of the calculation case show that the difference of users’ parking rules in different areas leads to different distribution forms of daily charging load in each area.The random charging behavior of users under the combined influence of time-of-use electricity price and parking time can make the charging demand shift in the spatial distribution.