Research On The Influencing Factors And Export Potential Of China’s Creative Product Trade With The Supporting Points Along The Belt And Road

As the process of economic globalization continues to accelerate,economic and cultural exchanges between countries have become more frequent,and people are increasingly spending on culturally related products.The creative industry is characterized by low pollution,low energy consumption and high added value,and is known as the “sunrise industry in the 21 st century”.The rapid growth of trade in creative products in recent years has become a new growth point for the world economy.The proposal of the “Belt and Road Initiative” provides a historical opportunity for China’s cultural industry to open up the market and promotes the growth of China’s export of creative products to the countries along the “Belt and Road”.However,there is still an imbalance in the structure and layout of Chinese cultural and creative products trade,the relative shortage of high-end talents,and the imperfect policies and regulations and market environment.Therefore,it is necessary to take corresponding measures to improve the international competitiveness of cultural and creative products.Based on the cultural trade data of the United Nations Business Database from 2003 to 2015,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s creative products trade with the Belt and Road fulcrum countries from the perspective of trade scale,geospatial space and commodity structure.This paper constructs a stochastic frontier gravitation model,verifies the influencing factors of cultural trade between China and the fulcrum countries,and analyzes the growth drivers and trade types of cultural trade exports between China and the fulcrum countries.On this basis,the ARIMA model is used to predict the future cultural export potential of China and the fulcrum countries.The results of the study indicate that GDP,population size,cultural distance,dependence on foreign trade,GDP per capita between the two countries,geographical distance,border crossing,polity index,investment freedom and trade agreement policies etc are important factors affecting China and the fulcrum countries.China’s cultural trade with Russia and Australia is “over-traded”,while China and the rest of the countries are “under-traded”.Among the “under-trade” countries,China has the greatest export potential of creative products to the UK,Germany and South Korea,and has a small export potential to Greece.Among the different types of creative products,the export potential of publishing products is the fastest,and the export potential of performing arts and audio-visual media is slower;the export potential of cultural design goods is the biggest,and the export potential of performing arts,audio-visual media and publications is smaller.Based on this,it puts forward suggestions for deepening the high-quality and sustainable development of China’s cultural trade along the “Belt and Road”.