Research On The Potential Of China's Cultural Goods Export To "The Belt And Road" Countries

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,General Secretary Xi has repeatedly emphasized cultural self-confidence.Strengthening foreign cultural trade and bringing more excellent cultural products with Chinese characteristics to the world is the only way to demonstrate cultural self-confidence and enhance the country's soft power.Since the entry of China's cultural products into the WTO in 2001,the scale has continued to expand,but the trade deficit of core cultural products still exists,and the product export structure needs to be optimized.The "Belt and Road Initiative" is based on the realistic foundation of China's development and provides a brand new platform for the export of Chinese cultural products.According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce,in the first half of 2018,China exported 7.22 billion US dollars of cultural products to the countries and regions along the "Belt and Road",an increase of 1.5%year-on-year,accounting for 19.3%of the total export of cultural products.This shows that China and the "Belt and Road“along the line The country has great prospects for cooperation in the field of cultural products.In this context,understand the status of China's export of cultural products along the "Belt and Road" countries,and study which factors affect China's export of cultural products to countries along the route,measure export efficiency and export potential,and judge whether China's exports with countries along the line reach to the best,whether there is room for an increase in export volume,which will not only help promote the continued growth of Chinese cultural products exports,but also have an important significance for the effective construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative itself.First of all,this thesis selects the data of 64 countries along the "Belt and Road" in 2007-2017,and systematically analyzes the status quo of China's export of cultural products to 64 countries.The study found that from 2007 to 2017,the scale of cultural products exported from China to 64 countries showed an overall expansion trend,but the growth rate slowed down in the past three years.Since the "Belt and Road"initiative was launched in 2013,China's cultural products for countries along the route.The proportion of-exports to China's total exports of cultural products has steadily increased,and the "Belt and Road" countries have increasingly become an important market for China's export of cultural products.From the types of export products,visual arts and handicrafts account for more than 80%.Most of these products are labor-intensive products that are low-cost and large-scale production.The added value is low,the cultural value contained in the products is small,and the dissemination of Chinese cultural concepts is very limited.From the perspective of export markets,China exports more than 70%of cultural products from 64 countries to Southeast Asia and West Asia and North Africa.The top 20 countries in terms of exports account for more than 91%of total exports.This reflects the current excessive concentration of export markets and the ability to withstand risks needs to be strengthened.Secondly,according to the characteristics of cultural products export,combined with the particularity of the "Belt and Road" countries,the article constructs a time-varying random frontal gravity model and a trade inefficiency item model,aiming to explore the factors affecting the export of cultural products,and to measure the Chinese sample.National export efficiency and export potential.The empirical results show that the economic scale of China and the importing country,the size of the country of importing countries,the border between the two countries,and the common language of the two countries are all positive factors for promoting the export of Chinese cultural products.The size of China's population and the two countries' Geographic distance can hinder exports.Among the factors affecting export inefficiency,cultural distance,institutional distance,and importer's tariff level are the main factors leading to export inefficiency,hindering exports;signing free trade agreements,improving importing countries' logistics performance index,and establishing sister cities in importing countries.The implementation of the "five links"policy such as the Confucius Institute can greatly reduce the inefficiency of exports and promote the export of cultural products in China.The measurement results of export efficiency and potential show that between 2007 and 2017,China's export efficiency of cultural products to sample countries has been low,maintaining around 0.32,and there is still huge export potential;from the regional perspective,exports to Southeast Asian countries are the most efficient.Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asian countries have the lowest efficiency.From the perspective of countries,the export potential varies greatly among countries.The sample countries can be divided into four categories:mature market,key expansion market,potential mining market and completely immature market.Finally,based on the empirical results of factors affecting the export of cultural products,combined with the measured export efficiency and export potential,the thesis puts forward suggestions on how to improve China's export scale of cultural products of the "Belt and Road" countries and optimize the export structure.