| The real estate industry is not only a pillar industry for the growth of the national economy,but also an important material basis for the broad masses of the people to achieve a well-off life."Everyone has a house" is the common aspiration of the government authorities and the people.However,at present,China’s economy has entered a downward channel,and the problem of population aging is becoming more and more serious.The real estate market will also be greatly affected.The impact of population structure on housing prices is closely related to the advancement of China’s urbanization process.Usually,the higher the level of urbanization the city has,the higher the level of economic development.The agglomeration effect of large cities also plays an important role in the allocation of resources including population,education,and medical care.Different levels of urbanization have different levels,and different levels of urbanization have a significant impact on the relationship between population structure and housing prices.In the context of China’s upcoming highly aging population,the demographic transition will certainly have a significant impact on the operation and development of the entire national economy.Studying the relationship between population structure and housing prices will help us to more accurately understand and understand the impact of future demographic changes on the real estate market,and better grasp the future trends of the real estate market.It can not only contribute to academic research,enrich existing research results,but also prepare for the impact of the upcoming aging population on the real estate market.In order to facilitate the timely regulation and control of relevant government departments,real estate investors have taken precautions to stabilize China’s real estate market,which is far-reaching and significant.This paper first defines the concept of population structure,and combs and summarizes the relevant literature on the relationship between population structure and housing price.(Based on the existing literature,it explores the gap between the two from a new perspective on the shoulders of giants.The relationship is introduced.Then the relevant theoretical basis is introduced,which provides a solid theoretical support for the research.Through descriptive statistics and icon combination,the current situation of population structure and housing price in China is introduced.Based on the background,combined with the existing literature and related theoretical support,the research hypothesis is put forward.On this basis,the mechanism design of empirical research is carried out,and the panel data is established based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2017.The model focuses on the impact of population structure on housing prices,conducts regional group regression analysis,explores the impact of regional heterogeneity on the relationship between population structure and housing prices,and then further explores the threshold effect of urbanization rate.Empirical results,as well as existing projections of future demographics,for future demographics The impact of the real estate market for the relevant predict the final results of the empirical basis for the future with the demographic changes in the real estate market impact than predicted,based on this paper the following conclusions:First,both the elderly dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio in the population structure have a significant impact on housing prices.When other variables remain the same,for every 1 percentage point increase in the old-age dependency ratio in our country,the housing price in China will drop sharply;and for every 1 percentage point decrease in the child support ratio,the housing price will fall to a certain extent.Second,the effect of the old-age dependency ratio and the young-age dependency ratio on housing prices in the demographic structure has regional heterogeneity in the eastern,central,and western regions.In the eastern region,every 1 percentage point increase in the old-age dependency ratio will lead to a significant decline in housing prices,and every 1 percentage point decrease in the child support ratio will cause a certain decline in housing prices.For the central and western regions,only an increase in the old-age dependency ratio will affect housing.Prices have an impact,and a decline in the child support ratio will not have a significant impact on housing prices.For the central region,every 1percentage point increase in the old-age dependency ratio will lead to a sharp rise in housing prices;in the western region,every 1 percentage point increase in the old-age dependency ratio will cause a substantial increase in housing prices.Third,the level of urbanization has a threshold effect on the relationship between the old-age dependency ratio,the child dependency ratio,and housing prices in the population structure.From the perspective of the old-age dependency ratio,when the urbanization rate is higher than 21.9%,a 1% increase in the old-age dependency ratio will cause the housing price to fall sharply;and when the urbanization rate is lower than 21.9%,the old-age dependency ratio is The effect of price is not significant.From the perspective of the child support ratio,when the urbanization rate is higher than 22.22%,when the child support ratio decreases by1 percentage point,the housing price will fall to a certain extent,and when the urbanization rate is lower than 22.22%,the child support Compared with the decline of 1 percentage point,the degree of decline in housing prices will rise significantly.Fourth,this model predicts that if the government does not strengthen policy guidance on the population structure,the continued increase of aging will cause long-term negative growth in housing prices.By predicting the impact of changes in the future population structure on real estate prices,it is found that from 2020 to2050,the continued increase in population ageing will cause the average level of national housing prices to decline by about 10% every five years.The continued decline is likely to lead to instability in the real estate market,which will drag down economic growth.Taken together,the demographic structure has a significant impact on housing prices.Under the background that the dependency ratio of children tends to be stable and the old-age dependency ratio rises year by year,the trend of population aging is unavoidable.The impact of changes in population structure on housing prices is not only regional heterogeneity,but also the threshold effect of urbanization,which is a huge challenge for the government departments that introduce relevant regulatory policies.In view of the above research conclusions,the following policy recommendations are proposed:First,optimize the population structure and promote the stable development of the real estate market.Under the background of an aging population,we will optimize the population structure.We should still further liberalize the second child policy and increase the birth rate.At the same time,the retirement age can be appropriately increased year by year.Second,improve the structure of the housing market and establish a diversified rental and sales system.While continuing to develop commercial housing,a diversified living system should also be established.The government should increase efforts to increase the supply of the rental market,establish a sound rental supply system,and introduce relevant laws and regulations to regulate the market,thereby improving the supply structure of the housing market,so that the masses can have more access to housing.Third,policy control is carried out in different regions.The government authorities should adopt different policies while adopting relevant population structure optimization policies and real estate market regulation.Instead of adopting a one-size-fits-all approach,the central government should also give local governments certain autonomyadjusted space when introducing relevant basic control policies.Fourth,accelerate the process of urbanization and stabilize the price of the real estate market.Under the background of China’s current population aging and economic downturn,the real estate market is also facing tremendous downward pressure.Accelerating the process of urbanization is conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on the real estate market,which is also a huge contribution to the steady growth of China’s economy. |
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