The Impact Of Population Aging On Housing Prices In My Country

Since the reform and opening up,the economy in China has grown rapidly,and in 2010 it became the world's second largest economy after the United States.At the same time,as a country with a large population,the total population of China has reached 139.538 million as of 2018.From 1991 to 2018,the dependency ratio of the elderly population in China increased from 9.0% to 16.8%,and with the "Baby Boom" generation(people born between 1962 and 1973)gradually entering into the aging process,the impact of the population ageing on China's economic and social development is expected to be even more significant by 2030.The increasingly serious problem of population aging has caused the economy and society to bear an increasingly heavy burden of supporting the elderly.The coordinated development of China's population and economy and society is in a state of "growing older before getting rich".At the same time,housing prices continue to rise rapidly,and the real estate market is receiving increasing attention from government agencies and the general public.Maintaining the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market is the main policy objective of China's economy and society,but how aging population affects housing prices is the content of this article.Based on a lot of domestic and foreign literature,this paper first sorts out the theoretical relationship between population aging,economic growth and house prices.Secondly,the relevant concepts and main indicators related to population aging and economic growth are clearly defined.Theoretical research is focused on the effects of population aging,economic growth,and the real estate market.In terms of theoretical models,the relationship between population structure and economic growth has been studied from the Cobb Douglas production function,and the performance of house prices in affecting the household sector's income distribution and utility maximization has been derived.Theoretical model of real estate rigid demand price and speculative demand price model are obtained.Finally,the empirical research is divided into two levels.In order to verify the generality of the model,the first step is international research to conduct empirical research on theoretical models.Due to data availability issues,this paper uses German population and economic correlations from 1950 to2018.The data analyzes the role of German demographic factors influencing house prices.The results show that changes in the natural population growth rate,labor supply,and population inflows have caused changes in house prices,while house prices and labor supply will affect capital input.The inadequate supply of social labor caused by population aging is the main cause of fluctuations in economic growth and changes in house prices.In the second step of empirical research,this paper analyzes the relevant data of China's labor supply,physical capital,population structure and house prices,and finds that China's natural population growth rate,net population inflows,capital input and labor supply all have an effect on house price fluctuations.Explains the reasons for the rising housing prices in China's first-tier cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,and Guangzhou,partly because sufficient labor supply has provided strong support for real estate prices.In terms of non-demographic factors,there is also a positive correlation between capital investment and housing prices,so housing prices are often high in regions with sufficient capital.The aging of the population also puts downward pressure on the labor supply of a country,and the increasing dependency ratio of the elderly population increases the economic burden on society.In the last part of this article,in view of the challenges brought by population aging to China's economic development,this article suggests that relevant policy plans should be prepared in advance to reduce the adverse impact of population aging on the economy.This article selects the perspective of demographic factors and uses the effect of population structure on economic growth as a starting point to study the impact of population aging on China's housing prices,both in theoretical and practical significance,as it is of great significance.It has deepened to a certain depth so that we understand the impact of population aging on housing prices,and further understand the role of population structure in economic growth and the close relationship between economic growth and the development of the real estate market.Finally,the effective adjustment of economic policies to the real estate market will be realized,and the organic balance and healthy development of population and housing will be promoted.