Research On Dynamic Risk Analysis Of Terrorist Attacks In Key Areas Of The ⅩⅩⅣ Olympic Winter Games

The ⅩⅩⅣ Olympic Winter Games is the most important large-scale sports event in our country in recent years.Event activities and venues are densely populated,and public opinion is generally highly concerned.Risk analysis for terrorist attacks is of very important practical significance.At present,there are few studies on the dynamic risk analysis of terrorist attacks in key areas of the Olympic Winter Games,and it is difficult to meet the needs of risk prevention and control.In this paper,three dimensions of threat,vulnerability and consequence are considered,and a dynamic risk analysis model of terrorist attack is constructed by using multiple methods,such as Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Bayesian network.A simulation system for the deployment of defense forces in key areas was developed to verify the effectiveness of the deployment scheme.Scenario analysis was carried out using the simulation data,and the South Park of Beijing Olympic Park was selected as a key area to carry out a case study to verify the effectiveness of the risk analysis model.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)A dynamic risk analysis model of terrorist attacks in key areas is constructed,including three parts: Threat analysis,Vulnerability analysis,and Consequence analysis.In the part of threat analysis,two threat calculation methods are proposed.In the part of vulnerability analysis,the index system of vulnerability analysis has been established,including 4 first-level indicators,15 second-level indicators and 58 quantifiable third-level indicators.Among them,inspection,patrol prevention and control,security inspection equipment,system and implementation,contingency plan and drill are the key factors that affect the vulnerability.In the part of consequence analysis,a Bayesian network for consequence analysis was established,which fully considered the impact of different factors on casualties,economic losses and social impacts.The Bayesian network for casualty module was obtained by machine learning,and the classification accuracy was 75.9%.(2)A simulation system for the deployment of defense forces in key areas of the Winter Olympics was developed,and the risk analysis model was analyzed based on the simulation data.The simulation system can test the deployment plan of defense forces and explore the effectiveness of different deployment plans in the face of different attack forces.In addition,the risk analysis model is verified by using the data generated by the simulation experiment.In the process of risk analysis,the difference between the calculated results of the two threat analysis models is small,and there is a negative correlation between threat and distance(the distance between the potential attacker and the key area).The dynamic risk analysis model can dynamically reflect the risk changes caused by the activities of potential attackers.(3)Carried out a case study of terrorist attack risk analysis in key areas.The South Park of Beijing Olympic Park was selected as the key area to carry out case study,collect experimental data,and input the risk analysis model.When no potential attackers are identified around the South Park of the Olympic Park,the attractiveness is 0.1259,and the attractiveness level is "high".When potential attacker appear,the value of risk rises from 0 to a maximum of 0.12(the risk level of terrorist attack is the highest).The dynamic risk analysis model of terrorist attack in key areas of the ⅩⅩⅣ Olympic Winter Games and the simulation system of the deployment of defense forces proposed in this paper are expected to provide decision-making reference and technical support for the allocation of police resources and emergency resources and the risk prevention and control of terrorist attack in key areas during the Olympic Winter Games.