Study On Risk Analysis Methods Of Urban Nuclear,Biological And Chemical Terrorist Attacking

Recent years,the nuclear,biological and chemical(NBC)terrorism become a type of emerging risk in the international community.Investigating the attacking preference of terrorists and establishing the risk analysis model with data mining methods,are important with theoretic sense and real need.To prevent the NBC terrorism,methods of prospect theory,geographic information systems,machine learning,association rule mining and Bayesian network are comprehensively applicated with the global terrorism database(GTD)and other data set from real cases.Based on these methods,multi-dimensional characteristic attributes,attacking preference of terrorists and risk analysis model for NBC attacks in urban area are studied.Results show that: in global scale,(1)three main potential attacking targets based on prospect theory are general public,public transportation systems and national armed forces;(2)terrorists are obviously dependent upon areas,and attacking area is an important feature which can be used to distinguish different terrorists;and(3)different terrorists prefer different combinations of attacking types,target types etc.(for instance,Taliban prefer to use incendiary weapons to launch facility/infrastructure attacking,and Shining Path and FARC prefer to choose firearms to assassinate the government,and ISIL tends to use melee weapons to kidnap private citizens and property).In urban scale,(1)the location of the attacking and the level of security check are important factors which would affect the risk of nuclear and chemical terrorist attacking;(2)the sensitivity of casualty caused by the diffusion of nuclear materials to wind fields are less significant;(3)the work type and the management of the chemicals are essential to determine the success of the attacking.The results of this paper can provide methodological support for the intelligence analysis of counter-terrorism.