Research About The Impact Of Children’s Decision-Making On The Long-term Residence Tendency Of Agricultural Transfer Population

By the end of 2019,China’s urbanization rate has exceeded 60.00%,and the floating population has gradually developed into the main body of the new population in various cities,of which the proportion of agricultural transfer population accounts for more than 80%.At the same time,the new family migration has gradually replaced the individual mobility.The long-term stable residence and civilization of agricultural transfer population in the inflow areas are not only related to the development of the agricultural transfer population themselves,but also the key to the country’s new urbanization development strategy.Based on the realistic basis of family migration of agricultural transfer population,this article attempts to study the civilization from the perspective of the influence of the behavior of children’s decision-making on the long-term residence tendency of agricultural transfer population.This article uses push-pull,the theory of human capital,the theory of new economic migration,the theory of social identity,the theory of happiness hierarchy and the theory of demand level to analyze the impact of children’s decision-making on the long-term residence tendency of agricultural transfer population from four aspects: human capital accumulation、urban identity、 the sense of happiness and responsibility of the migrants.The study found that children’s relocation can affect their parents’ long-term residence tendency in the city through the consumption variable.Then,this paper uses the data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017 to establish a binary logistic theoretical model for empirical testing.In order to overcome the endogenous effect,the children’s decision-making rate of the same community is used as a tool variable for the children’s decision-making;Propensity Score Matching(PSM)and other methods are used for stability testing;taking into account the existence of heterogeneity,group analysis of individual generational differences,the number of children,the age structure of children,etc.The study found that: First,the impact of children’s decision-making on the long-term residence tendency of agricultural transfer population can be affected by the mechanism of family consumption.That is,children increase household consumption.On the one hand,the sense of happiness of the migrant population increases due to family reunification.On the other hand,the increase in household consumption has also encouraged the agricultural transfer population to work harder and integrate into the cities.Secondly,under the control of other variables,children’s decision-making has significantly increased the long-term residence tendency of agricultural transfer population.Third,among the control variables,the gender,age,cultural level,and spousal migration behavior of the agricultural transfer population will also have a significant impact on their long-term residence tendency in cities.Fourth,through heterogeneity analysis,it is found that families of the new generation of agricultural transfer population,families with no preschool children and a large number of children in their families are more inclined to stay in cities for a long time.Finally,this article puts forward suggestions from the government and individual aspects to increase the long-term residence tendency of agricultural transfer population: relevant departments should improve supporting policies for migrant families,especially to address the education of children who move with them.At the individual level,the agricultural transfer population must also pay attention to the accumulation of human capital.