| According to data from the China’s National Bureau of Statistics,14.65 million children were born in 2019,the number of new births has been declining for three years since 2017.Since 1992,when China’s total fertility rate fell below the world population generation replacement level 2.1 for the first time,China’s total fertility rate was only 1.68 in 2017.The population is about to fall sharply.Fertility is not only related to family but also to society.With the decrease of the number of newborn,the population structure will changes from "oval" and "triangle" to "inverted triangle".It will bring many problems to economic development,population replacement and reproduction.Although China has been adjusting its fertility policy since 2011,it has had limited effect.The decrease in the number of young people will lead to a shortage of labor supply,and falling consumer demand.Eventually leading to a slowdown in economic growth.What’s reason of low fertility? Where should the government start to arouse the people’s desire to procreate? Fertility is not only a sociological problem,but also an economic problem.Japan’s labor population entered the lewis turning point in 1990,when it began a recession and weakness lasting for 30 years.This paper based on data of CGSS2012,2013 and 2015,using logarithmic standard deviation within the group and unemployment probability in the group as a measure of income uncertainty,using OLS regression test the income uncertainty,unemployment probability and the relationship between fertility intentions,then according to gender,district,company ownership do three sample regression.The results show that,firstly the uncertainty of family income has a significant negative effect on fertility intention,while absolute income has a significant positive effect on fertility intention.Unemployment probability has an inverted U fitting relation with fertility intention,and the other control variables have the same marginal effect direction in the two models.This confirms that a stable income is a prerequisite for family fertility.Secondly,from the perspective of different groups,income uncertainty has a significant impact on the fertility intentions of men,but not on women.Unemployment has an impact on both men and women,but a greater impact on men.From the perspective of women alone,the impact of unemployment is much greater than the impact of income uncertainty.For urban groups,income uncertainty has a higher inhibitory effect on fertility desire than rural groups,but has a lower effect on unemployment risk than rural groups.Income uncertainty and the probability of unemployment has remarkable effect on work groups within the system for system outside working group,its impact on fertility intentions more individual characteristics,but this does not mean that the stable income and work for system working outside is not important,just in the process of their work,expectations of uncertain factors make the effect of uncertainty is reduced. |
