Research On The Impact Of China’s Labor Structure On The Economic Volatility

At present,our country is in the critical period of population transformation,and characteristics of the labor force such as the trend of aging,the improved overall quality,and more men than women,are becoming more and more obvious.As one of the basic factors of production,the structural transformation of labor force will have a significant impact on the operation of the macro-economy.Therefore,it is particularly important to explore the relationship between the transformation of labor structure and economic volatility.First of all,this paper sort out the literature on the labor structure and economic volatility,and clarified the research content and significance of this paper.Secondly,we define the relevant concepts,and then analyze the impact mechanism of labor structure on economic volatility from three different perspectives: age structure,quality structure and gender structure.Among them,age structure influences economic volatility through industrial structure and consumption habits,quality structure influences economic volatility through manufacturing scale and income gap,while gender structure influences economic volatility through efficiency of labor,employment and social order.Finally,based on the econometric model,the empirical analysis is carried out by using the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2015.The regression results show that: the improvement of the age structure of the labor force will slow down the economic volatility,and the improvement of the quality structure will also help to restrain the economic volatility,while the change of the gender structure has a "U" type impact on the economic volatility,that is,when the ratio of men to women is low,the increase of the ratio will reduce the amplitude of economic volatility,however,when the ratio exceeds a certain threshold,the increase of the ratio will aggravate the amplitude of economic volatility.When we divide the samples into developed and underdeveloped regions,we get similar results.Further,we conducted robustness analysis and conditional tests respectively,and the regression results are still stable.Therefore,this paper considers that the changes of age structure,quality structure and gender structure of labor force have significant influence on economic volatility.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,we put forward the following suggestions: Firstly,we should improve the fertility and related supporting policies,establish a high-quality population survey and evaluation system,actively promote the "universal two-child" policy,and appropriately adjust the fertility policy;Secondly,we should fully tap the demographic dividend of the aging workforce,and encourage enterprises to recruit retired workers and retired workers to be recruited;Thirdly,we should improve the educational system,accelerate educational reform,distribute educational resources fairly,attach important higher education and vocational education,and establish a public education mechanism.Fourthly,we should establish a correct gender perspective,prohibit fetal identification,improve employment mechanism and employment opportunities for female labor force,and protect women’s rights.