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The Adjustment Of Employment And Industrial Structure Under The Situation Of Transformation Of Supply And Demand Of Labor Force

Posted on:2014-06-04Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X N HanFull Text:PDF
GTID:1487304322464594Subject:National Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the deepening of reform and opening, China's economy maintains a good momentum of rapid growth. However, until the1990s, the economic growth has not effectively alleviated the pressure of employment of our country. Accompanied with the pressure caused by the laid-offs of state-owned-enterprise and increasing population, the employment situation is grim over that time, and the task is arduous. The central and local governments of China focus on developing the labor-intensive industries and increasing employment opportunities. The academic circles also put emphasis on solving the problem of employment. At the beginning of twenty-first Century, China has officially joined the world trade organization. It was also the period that the trend of world economic integration has been gradually strengthened. At the same time, our country was in the process of the construction and perfection of the socialist market economic system, and realized the synchronization of the rapid economic development and structural adjustment. Nevertheless, our country's labor market is not perfect at present. The contradiction between the upgrading of industrial structure and employment structure is increasingly significant.Since the beginning of2004, the employment situation has changed. The phenomenon of "shortage of migrant workers" emerges in the big cities in the eastern part of our country, resulting in difficulties of recruitment for the labor-intensive industries. From then on, the situation of " shortage of migrant workers " hasn't been relieved, but becomes even more serious. The local governments and enterprises all introduce favorable terms to attract migrant workers, leading to fierce competition among the eastern and western cities in attracting migrant workers. In this case, we need to review and adjust the past academic points and the government's policies. On the one hand, examing the problems of general supply and demand of labor of China, on the other hand, making deep research on the relation between industrial structure and employment structure and grasping the relationship between supply and demand of labor in a deeper level, as well as exploring the coordination between employment structure and industrial structure in the new situation.The evolution of industrial structure and the adjustment of employment structure is actually the reconfiguration of resources, and the healthy and orderly development of national economy requires mutual adaptation and coordination between industrial structure and employment structure. First of all, our industry department is the carrier of employment, and dominates the construction of employment structure to a certain extent. Hence, the adjustment of industrial structure will inevitably lead to relative transformation in employment structure. Secondly, with the evolution of industrial structure from lower to higher stage, an appropriate employment structure is required to adapt to it, otherwise, the further optimization of the industrial structure will be impeded.At present, China's industrial structure realizes unceasing optimization and upgrading. Correspondingly, China's employment structure also carries out relative adjustments.In spite of the same directions of the change with those of industrial structure, the degrees are different and there are large structural deviations in the evaluation of employment structure, suggesting that there is incompatibility between employment structure and industrial structure in China.In this paper, we have collected a large quantity of relevant research literatures at home and abroad, and conducted comprehensive analysis and assessments, based on which we use the theoretical knowledge of various disciplines mutually to analyze the coordinated development between industry structure and employment structure in the case that the supply and demand of labor has changed in China. At the same time, based on the existing research achievement and promote the coordinated development of China's industrial structure and employment structure, the following five aspects are carried out:Firstly, the evolution trend of China's population structure, employment structure and industrial structure is analyzed in detail through collecting the related data of population, employment and industry after China's reform and opening,. And analysis the transition of our country's labor supply and demand as well as the change of industrial structure and employment structure. Analysis the growth rate of the three industrial employment, the proportion of employment. For a more in depth analysis at the lewisian turning point,the occurred transition of our country's labor supply and demand,and the changes of related structural.Conclusions:(1)From the general point of view, changes in employment structure in China basically meet the theorem, however, the changes of the employment structure and industrial structure of our country are not entirely consistent and there is significant imbalance. Through data analysis, the tertiary industry contributes more than the second industry to employment, but the gap significantly is reduced in2004. Since then, the second industry contributes more than the tertiary industry to employment in2005-2007and2010. It is just the time that" shortage of migrant workers" occurs in a high degree, and the labor intensive industrial enterprises have received increasing number of orders, leading to large demand of labor. Nevertheless, it is difficult to hire that underemployment occurred, thus the industrial sector suffered from labor shortage. It also shows that, the rural surplus labor force has been mainly shifted to the tertiary industry in the past32years, but after2004(especially among the4years) a large number of surplus rural labor has been overflowed into the second industry which mainly includes industrial sector.(2)The evolution trend of China's urban and rural employment structure is that the urban employment population is always in a rising trend, and thus the barriers between urban and rural areas began to be broken after the reform and opening. Rural areas gradually step forward to urbanization. From the analysis of employment of our country's industry structure, it can also be known that the development trend of the first industry in China is in accordance with law of the evolution of industrial structure, that is, when the economy develops to the stage of industrialization, the proportion of absorbing labor for the first industry declines. While the surplus rural labor force released from the first industry are absorbed by the second and third industry.(3) Lewis turning point or the turning point of our country's labor supply and demand is a reflection of the change in total employment. However, by the "tide of peasant labors" to "labor shortage" changes in the formation of such a turning point or transition accompanied by profound structural change. And this structural change was also an important force in promoting labour supply and demand in the transition.Secondly, we take empirical analysis on the relationship varied by China's industrial structure and employment structure, using the cointegration relationship analyzing method, also perform stationarity test, the granger causality test, then use the 'panel data' to measure the model.Concluding that China's primary industries has a negative effect on employment, namely, with the increase of value increase of primary industry of our country, the number of employees of this industry is correspondingly reduced, which infers that the growth of primary industry can't pull the growth of employment of first industry, nevertheless, there is labor crowding-out effect. For the second industry, the result by analysis of panel data accords with the actuality of supply and demand of labor, which means the second industry and employment promote and affect each other. While in the tertiary industry, the increase of added values of this has a positive effect coefficient on employment, indicating that the increase of the added values can drive a corresponding increase of employees in tertiary industry, from the granger causality test, we find that the employment effect coefficient of the tertiary industry is much larger than that of the second industry. Hence, its ability to absorb employees and create the opportunities of employment is far stronger than the latter. While from the analysis of panel data, the employment structure of the tertiary industry has a negative effect coefficient on industrial structure, this validates the shortage phenomena of industrial sector is more severe from the view of "shortage of migrant workers" of recent years, in other words, industrial sector can absorb more employees than the tertiary industry. However, the employment elasticity of the second industry is larger than that of the tertiary industry in2005-2007and2009-2010. It happened that "shortage of migrant workers" is more frequent in that period, especially in the industrial sector. This phenomenon is consistent with the previous analysis of employment contribution rate of industries. This conclusion is consistent with the research of scholars at home and abroad, and it is also the comprehensive verification of relation between industrial structure and employment structure in the30years of China's reform and opening.Thirdly, apply the contribution of employment rate, employment elasticity analysis, comparative labor productivity analysis of each industry to analyze the associate relation between industrial structure and employment structure of our country from different angles. The results showed that:in China, the tertiary industry has always maintained a high employment elasticity, and is industry which grows fastest in employment and holds the strongest ability of absorbing labor force, at the same time, the gap of comparative labor productivity rate of the tertiary industry of our country is gradually narrowing, adjustment of employment structure of the second, three industries have gradually become more rational, while the first industry appears unbalanced trend.Fourth, apply the structure deviation degree index to explore the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure of our country and measure the coordination degree of the two structures in the processes of evolution accurately, as well as study on our country's population structure and rural surplus labor force. Results show that:from the analysis of population structure, the young rural surplus labor force is not much substantial, and the potential to transfer to the urban second and tertiary industry is very small, the analysis of deviation of the second industry concludes that there is still large space to absorb labor force for the second industry, but the space of the tertiary industry is gradually decreasing. From the overall trend, although the rural surplus labor in China has not reached the degree of depletion due to the limitation of population structure, China will continue to have the tendency of shortage of young labor supply, and thus it is hard for rural areas to continue to provide adequate labor force for the urban areas.Fifthly, exploration on the balance of supply and demand and the structural adjustment of labor. From the analysis above, we can draw the following conclusions:In the long run, the tertiary industry holds the largest impacts on the employment. The increase of unit added value can create the maximum opportunities of employment, and it ability of absorbing employees is the strongest. But from2004, the situation of supply and demand of the labor market has changed and the second industry which mainly relies on industry grows rapidly, and with the increase of orders of industrial enterprises, the demand of the entire industry department for labor has increased greatly. Hence, the employment contribution rate and elasticity of employment index of the second industry have rose rapidly in recent years, even preponderate over the tertiary industry. Since the reform and opening, the labor force of first industrial transfer to the second and third industry unceasingly, and the transfer speed has kept increasing since the late of1990s. Although the first industry still has the largest number of labor force and the negative deviation degree of industrial structure of is very high, but because of the limitation of population structure, the proportion of young migrant workers has decreased. The potential of labor force in the first industrial remaining to be transferred sequentially is on the decline labor, and thus the shortage of labor will exist for a long time in the future. With the durative improvement of workers' wages, welfare and treatment,"demographic dividend" gradually shrinks. The circumstance whose increase relies on "demographic dividend" will no longer exist. Facing this situation, the government's policy, the ideas of government and the enterprise all need adjustments or changes.This paper suggests to change ideas, to curb the blind expansion trend of the labor-intensive industries, to improve labor productivity of industry sector effectively, to reduce the demand for operating labor, to develop knowledge-intensive industries, to ease the difficult of employment of college students, to develop the tertiary industry vigorously, to meet the demand of labor force required by the tertiary industry as a matter of priority.
Keywords/Search Tags:population structure, industrial structure, employment structure, the tertiary industry, rural surplus labor
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