An Empirical Study On The Effect Of The Labor Structure Change On The Upgrading Of Manufacturing Structure

Under the multiple backgrounds of the transformation of the demographic structure,the popularization of higher education,and the universal two-child policy,the labor force structure in China is undergoing profound changes.The outstanding performance is that the number and the proportion of the middle-aged and older laborers,physical laborers,and female laborers have decreased,their labor costs have risen and they have lower education,these have led to a decline in the low-cost advantages of traditional manufacturing industries;Howerver the number and the proportion of the new generation of laborers,knowledge-based laborers,and male laborers have increased,their labor costs are relatively low,and they have higher education,these make the manufacturing structure upgrade usher in a development opportunity.Therefore,it is urgent to discuss how to follow the updates of the labor structure and promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure.From the perspective of the age structure,quality structure,and gender structure of the labor force,this paper first proposes a multidimensional mechanism that influences the structural upgrade of the manufacturing industry based on the existing research and related theories:the variations in the age structure of the labor force affect the demographic dividend and labor selection behavior and consumer preferences,in turn,affect the structural upgrade of the manufacturing sector.Changes in the quality structure of the labor force affect technological innovation,labor costs,and the laborer's consumption structure,which in turn affect the upgrading of the manufacturing structure.Changes in the gender structure of the labor force affect the allocation of resources,production profits,and savings rate,in turn,affect the structural upgrade of the manufacturing sector.Secondly,based on the provincial panel segment industry data from 1996 to 2015,the FGLS linear regression model was constructed to empirically test the effect of changes in labor structure on the structural upgrade of the manufacturing industry.Empirical results found:The increase in the proportion of the new generation of laborers can promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure,the impact on labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing is negative,while the effect on technology-intensive manufacturing is confident and has a stronger effect;The increase in the proportion of knowledge-based laborers has a specific role in promoting the upgrading of the manufacturing structure,the impact on labor-intensive manufacturing is negative,while the impact on capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing is positive and the impact coefficient is small;The increase in the sex ratio of the labor force has hindered the upgrading of the manufacturing structure.The coefficient of influence on labor-intensive manufacturing is positive,while the factor of influence on capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing is negative.Finally,according to the previous theoretical research and empirical tests,we put forward corresponding policy recommendations to follow the trends of the age structure,quality structure,and gender structure of the labor force to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure.The first step is to adapt to changes in the age structure of the labor force and improve the modernization of the manufacturing structure.The second step is to move along the changes in the quality structure of the labor force and promote the improvement of the manufacturing structure.The third step is to guide the changes in the gender structure of the labor force and encourage the development of the manufacturing industry.The fourth step is to give play to the comparative advantage of the industry and implement a regional industrial policy with support and control.