The Impact Of Delayed Retirement On Economic Growth

In the context of the continued aging of China’s population and the extension of life expectancy,the delay in retirement has become an inevitable trend,how to delay retirement has become a focus of widespread concern in society.This paper mainly analyzes the economic growth effect of the quantity and quality of labor supply brought by delayed retirement.Based on the simulation of the changes in the quantity and quality of labor under three different delayed retirement schemes,the impact of delayed retirement on economic growth is estimated by establishing an economic growth model.This paper first analyzes the impact of delayed retirement on economic growth from the aspects of labor supply quantity and quality,pension fund income and expenditure,household savings and consumption.In the empirical analysis,the cohort element method was first used to predict the labor supply and human capital in the current retirement policy and three different delayed retirement programs in 2018-2050.The forecast results show that the implementation of the three delayed retirement schemes can bring about a significant increase in the supply of labor,but the time nodes of change are different: the large-scale increase of the radical delayed retirement labor is mainly in the early stage,and the moderate delayed retirement policy is mainly In the medium term,the gradual delayed retirement policy is mainly in the latter stage.In addition,in the long run,the three delayed retirement schemes will increase the per capita labor human capital stock.Secondly,based on the data of China from 1997 to 2017,this paper empirically simulates the economic growth model by using the Cobb Douglas production function,and through this model,the economy of China under the current retirement policy and three different delayed retirement schemes in 2018-2050.The total amount was forecasted.The forecast results show that the three delayed retirement schemes can promote economic growth,but the most significant effects of the three schemes on economic growth are in the early,middle and late stages of the implementation.On the whole,the progressive delayed retirement scheme is more conducive to increasing labor supply and human capital stock,which is more conducive to promoting China’s economic growth.Thirdly,this paper also examines the difference in the impact of the progressive delayed retirement scheme on the economic growth of the three regions of China’s eastern,central and western regions.The study found that,relative to the retirement age,the promotion of economic growth in the east is greater than that of the central and western regions.Therefore,extending the retirement age may widen the gap between the three regions.At the end of the article,based on the empirical results,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations.In order to alleviate the pressure brought about by the aging of China’s population and promote economic growth,we should promote the progressive delayed retirement policy in a timely manner.At the same time,we should increase social subsidies to the labor force,increase its income level,and promote sustained economic growth by raising consumption levels.In addition,when implementing the delayed retirement policy,it is necessary to increase investment in education in underdeveloped areas and improve the level of human capital.