| For a long time,due to the influence of the urban-rural dual structure in China,the rural migrant population,mainly migrant workers,cannot enjoy the same welfare treatment and basic public services as the urban residents although they enter the urban employment life,resulting in the formation of a new dual structure in the city.In order to change this situation,the national new urbanization strategy proposes to promote "people-centered" urbanization,and points out that the key to population urbanization is citizenization of migrant agricultural population.We should not only promote the transfer of rural population to cities and towns,but also realize the real transformation of their identity,so that they can enjoy the rights and interests of citizens equally.However,the reform needs to pay a huge public cost.Can the local government of Xinjiang afford the huge cost under the current financial condition?Does the government benefit cover the cost? These have become urgent problems to be solved in the transformation of Xinjiang’s population urbanization system.By constructing the index system and model,this paper calculates and forecasts the government costs and benefits of the institutional change of population urbanization in Xinjiang from the perspective of the government.Firstly,this paper expounds the theory of institutional change and the definition of relevant concepts,and then discusses the cost factors of institutional change,which lays a theoretical foundation for the calculation of the following paper.Secondly,this paper analyzes the ability of Xinjiang government to pay in public finance,and makes a horizontal and vertical comparison between Xinjiang’s urbanization status and the financial status of the government.Then,on the basis of comparing similar studies,the paper constructs a cost measurement system,and calculates the annual per capita government cost of population urbanization system change in Xinjiang from 2009 to 2018 by subtotal method;By constructing the regression model of fiscal revenue and disposable income to measure the government annual earnings;And compares the cost benefit analysis;Finally,the ARIMA model and the grey model are used to forecast the total government cost and per capita government revenue respectively,so as to predict the change trend of fiscal expenditure and revenue that Xinjiang government needs to pay to reach the planning target during the 13 th five-year plan period.Through the above research,this paper draws the following main conclusions: First,thegovernment cost of Xinjian’s population urbanization system changes showed a trend of rapid rise and then flattening out from 2009 to 2018.Among the seven major costs,the urban infrastructure construction cost accounts for the highest proportion,reaching 53.9% on average,followed by the housing security cost and the public management cost of basic public services,accounting for 24.72% and 13.32% respectively.Second,government revenue has been increasing in the past 10 years,with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%.If the transition cost is considered only from the perspective of public service,the gap between government benefit and cost is obviously narrowed.According to the calculation results,the mismatch between the cost of institutional change and the benefits in the same period is an important reason for the poor performance of local governments in promoting urbanization reform.Third,the forecast of the cost and benefit in the future period shows that the government’s financial revenue shows an exponential growth trend,and the future revenue is considerable.However,in order to achieve the planned urbanization goal during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,Xinjiang government needs to pay about 6 times of the change cost of income.Based on the comprehensive comparison of the financial status of the government,it can be concluded that Xinjiang Government is still facing great financial pressure at present,and comprehensive institutional reform is needed to complete the institutional change. |
PDF Full Text Request