| Since the implementation of the second child policy in 2016,China’s fertility rate has not significantly improved.Social problems caused by low fertility rates such as aging,the disappearance of the demographic dividend,the shrinking labor force ratio,and the decline in social vitality still need to be urgently addressed.The decrease in fertility rate is closely related to the migration of rural to urban population in the process of urbanization in China.The purpose of this article is to explore this relationship and predict future urbanization rates and total fertility rates.This paper first explores the impact of urbanization,rural-urban population migration,and the urban-rural gap based on the VAR model;Second,based on the Logistic model of urbanization rate and an adjustment method that keeps the predicting result does not exceed the threshold,we predict the urbanization rate of 31 provinces in China in the next 30 years;Third,based on the relationship between urbanization and the total fertility rate,we use the high,medium and low scenarios to predict the total fertility rate of 31 provinces in the next 30 years.The results of the VAR model show that there is a co-integration relationship between urbanization,rural-urban migration,and urban-rural gap.This shows that the growing urban-rural gap is an important driving factor for the extremely rapid development of urbanization and the migration of rural to urban population.The results of the high,medium,and low scenarios show that under the high scenario,China’s fertility rate in the next thirty years will barely remain the same as in 2010.The situation of declining fertility rate is not optimistic.We need to consider how to increase the fertility rate of the population that migrates into cities and towns in the future from changing the way of urbanization.This article puts forward the measures to change the way of urbanization to increase the fertility rate,that is,to build small and medium-sized towns,reduce the gap between urban and rural areas,and integrate development of urban and rural. |
