An Analysis Of The Fertility Trends In China Using A Modified Lee-Carter Model

The population problem is the primary issue related to the economic development of our society. Since the end of the 20th century, the fertility rate of China's women has remained under low level. Low fertility level brings series of problems, like social aging, laboi force declined sharply, etc. Whether or not to release government control over "one-child policy" becomes the heat issue of social discussion. Analyzing and forecasting the variation tendency of fertility rate among China's fertile women has important instructive meaning and reference value for the government to formulate population policies.The paper assesses the current level and ongoing trend of the period total fertility rate (TFR) and age-specific fertility rates in China using the data from the China Population Statistics Yearbooks (1988-2009) and a newly modified Lee-Carter model, which has the capability of profiling the age-specific rates over years. From the analysis, we find a decreasing trend in fertility in the late 1990s and an end of the trend around 2000 in the country. From 2000, for first babies, we find increasing trends in fertilities for women of all ages in the four groups, the country, cities, towns and counties, except for women under 27 in cities, under 26 in towns and under 25 in counties in the very recent years; for "second+" babies, we find increasing trends in fertilities in the four groups except for women in cities and counties in the very recent years, as the increasing fertility rates have grown beyond the limits set by the "One Child" policy. We also compare the observed age-specific fertility rates for 2009 (from the 2009 annual survey) with the predicted rates for 2009 based on the 2000-2008 data, and find that for "second+" babies, the observed age-specific fertility rates in 2009 are at the same level as that in 2008 in all the four groups; however, for first babies, the observed age-specific fertility rates in 2009 are at the same level as that in 2008 for women of all ages in cities, and lower than that in 2008 for women under 26 in towns and under 25 in counties, which may be caused by rapid urbanization that has been happening in the most recent years in China-women are getting married slightly later.Whether to adjust the family planning policy is open to discussion. Now, what we should do is to grasp exactly the dynamic change of the quality and the structure of population; follow rules of harmonious development for population, ecological environment, economics and society; keep the moderate population growth rate; strike a balance between male and female gender, optimize the structure of population and ease the population aging process. Thus, the development of population can adapt, coordinate and promote mutually with economy, society, resources and environment. Moreover, the harmonious coexistence for the human and the nature will come true in the end.